Pulse


The Future of China’s Reform and Opening-Up

December 18, 2018, marks the 40th anniversary of the official beginning of China’s reform and opening-up, when the third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was held from December 18th to the 22nd, 1978.

Chinese Illegal Fishing Activities in Latin America

This article is about activities of the Chinese deepwater fishing fleet in Latin American waters, and their negative impact on the livelihood of some of the region's most vulnerable communities.  Although the media has highlighted a number of high-profile cases off the coasts of Argentina and Ecuador, in my research, I was struck by how widespread Chinese violations of the Exclusive Economic Zones of Latin American states, and other practices such as overfishing, trawl nets, etc appear to be, mirroring the damage that such activities have already caused in Asia and Africa.

EconVue Spotlight - History is Back

I normally feel after reading, reviewing, and discussing the events of the previous week that I’m able to discern a direction or constructive theme.  Today however, every corner of the world seems mired in some degree of turmoil, and markets are reacting. There is so much noise that it is difficult to decide what is causing this new volatility. Is it China, the Fed, the Mueller investigation, Yellow Jackets, or technology run amuck?

Beneath-Trend Growth for World Economy in Early 2019

Forecasts for 2019 are now coalescing. The typical view is that the first half of the year will be more difficult for the world economy than 2017 and 2018, with beneath-trend growth likely. As has been anticipated in these notes for some time, the Eurozone is the focus of concern. Not only will the European Central Bank end its asset purchases next year, but warnings are being given to the weakest banks – the banks that cannot easily fund their assets from market sources – that the ECB’s long-term loan facilities to them may not be extended in mid-2020.

Taiwan’s Struggle for Partners and Survival

From November 26 to December 2, 2018, I traveled to Taipei, Taiwan to speak at the prestigious private university, Tamkang. There I had the chance to interact with academics, officials, and students regarding Taiwan’s relationships in Latin America and the Caribbean and its associated struggle for diplomatic and existential survival.

The Oil Market Rout

The rout in oil markets continued in November, the markets worst month in 10 years. Oil prices West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down by 22%, to their lowest level in 13 months. In the past few months, oil markets have moved from balanced to oversupply, which sent oil prices (Brent) crashing by one-third from a high of $86/bbl at the beginning of October to under $60/bbl at the end of November. 

The Future of Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of the Rise of China

There are numerous analyses about China and its future, as well as about Chinese engagement with Latin America. This report examines, in detail, how the growth of China, with its power and role in the global economy, is likely to transform Latin America and the Caribbean through economic, political, and other forms of engagement with the region.

Cautiously optimistic on the upcoming G20 Xi-Trump meeting

Has the “new Cold War” between the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America began? Pessimists argue that the tough speech on China made by US Vice-President Mike Pence at the Hudson Institute on October 4, 2018 was the dangerous sign.

The Buenos Aires G20 Summit: A Preview

The G20 leaders gathering on November 30 in Buenos are meeting at a time of rising global challenges to the global economic and financial system: slowing global growth, rising trade tensions, attacks by the Trump administration on the global financial architecture, financial markets meltdown,  regional disputes among key G20 members.

EconVue Spotlight

I know some people abhor social media.  The sector has certainly taken a beating lately in the markets, but I really love Twitter. It gives me the ability to hear the (curated) voices of people I know, don’t know, and in some cases hope I never know, but who make me think.  I follow the newspapers and journals I used to have to login to separately, read other media from all around the world I didn’t even know existed, and get into impromptu conversations with real experts. 

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