Next Chair Will Share Ultra-Dove Outlook, But the Data Will Force Faster Policy Normalization
Once upon a time, the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve was a lifetime appointment. Or so Alan Greenspan made it seem. Like J. Edgar Hoover at the FBI, “Maestro” Greenspan rode out changes in presidents and parties effortlessly for decades. Greenspan did not even have to blackmail anyone (that we know of…). Those days are gone.
Images of the Ever Given container ship stuck in the Suez Canal have been ubiquitous over the past week. Less discussed is the physics behind the accident. Most probably the culprit is something called the bank effect, the tendency of the stern of a moving ship to swing towards the near bank when operating in a constricted waterway, influenced by a host of factors but preceded by a "yawing moment" as the bow moves laterally.
In like a lion, and out like an even bigger lion. March jobs and vehicle sales surprised to the upsides, even for those (such as FMI) who were expecting well-above-consensus gains. FMI is still expecting +6% real GDP growth for 21Q1 and +10% for 21Q2.
SAN FRANCISCO (Callaway Climate Insights) — The ESG investment phenomenon is reframing financial markets at pace in the face of a post-pandemic landscape, yet U.S. regulators are only now beginning to publicly embrace the critical importance of sustainability disclosure to market accountability.
There are indeed glimmers of a new path forward for ESG disclosure rules in Washington. This is remarkable in and of itself in that these inklings are in sharp contrast to the last four years of Trumpian “American First” mentality, including at the SEC.
SAN FRANCISCO (Callaway Climate Insights) — Europe cemented yet another jewel into its sustainability crown when Italy’s government issued the European Union’s biggest-ever green bond in early March, raising more than €8 billion ($9.4 billion) to finance Italy’s green transition strategy and boosting the EU’s status as the world’s fastest growing player in today’s green bond market.
Current Situation in the US, What It Means for Asia and the World - An Interview with Marsha Vande Berg/CUTS International
A question that bothers international audiences as well as those across the US is the extent of the divide in American society today. That was the topic of a recent conversation between India Ambassador Amit Dasgupta and Marsha Vande Berg. The conversation also highlights the evolving relationship between the US and India.
View at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iE_qDVGkF7g
This interview is conducted by my colleague David Burda.
This week, a podcast and a panel. The March 2021 Hale Report podcast is my interview with Karen Petrou, discussing her new book, Engine of Inequality: The Fed and the Future of Wealth in America. Just published, it is already the #1 book in its category on Amazon.