This weekend I expected to be writing about the results of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s trip to China and prospects for the reopening of China’s post-Covid economy. Instead, Americans have been mesmerized by the week-long journey of a Chinese balloon, and I have been bombarded with questions about what it means. A symbol of both China’s rise and presence in the US, a white balloon galvanized the media in a way that a diplomatic visit would never have equaled.

Upside economic surprises from the United States and the eurozone have underscored the fact that the global economy has performed better in the fourth quarter of last year (4Q22). The US economy expanded by 2.9% (annualized), while the eurozone avoided a recession, with output expanding by 0.1%, quarter-on quarter. 

FIG.1 THE IMF UPWARD REVISIONS

(Marsha Vande Berg is director of MJGlobal Insights, a resource for corporate and fund decision-makers when shaping their dynamic sustainability stakeholder narratives. The former CEO of the Pacific Pension & Investment Institute, Marsha has worked with pension executives worldwide. A Stanford University Distinguished Careers Fellow and author of MJGI Briefs, you can reach her at linkedin.com/in/mjvb and follow her @MarshaJVB.)

By Marsha Vande Berg

As I write this, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has just announced that it will stand pat on its monetary policy. In the initial reaction, the yen/$ dropped three points to 131.2. The ten-year JGB dropped from 0.506% yesterday to 0.380%, but it remains to be seen whether that is due to BOJ intervention in the bond market. I will wait to see more of the the market reaction before commenting.

TOWARDS A MODERN MONETARY POLICY.

If you think the case for central banks holding cryptocurrencies in their reserves is farfetched, think again. They are already making detailed preparations.

Despite strengthening relative to the U.S. dollar in recent weeks, the currency’s real value is at a 50-year low.

A weaker dollar, falling interest rates, lower inflation and oil prices are offering a welcome, albeit temporary relief to emerging markets.