Pulse: Macro


The Truth About Today’s Inflation

The conventional wisdom about inflation needs a course correction.  Here’s why:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the wages and total compensation of Americans working full-time at least kept pace with inflation from January through March.  Based on what people tell government surveyors, median weekly earnings after inflation stabilized in the first quarter of 2022 after falling steadily through 2021.

Remarks at International Finance Forum 2022 Spring Meetings, April 27-28

Remarks made at the International Finance Forum Spring meeting 2022. Edited post-delivery to reflect China’s announcement of its first ESG disclosure guidance, officially published April 16 and to take effect June 1, 2022

The Caribbean in the Crossfire: Between Covid-19, Narcotics, China, and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

My newest work on how the combination of Covid-19, Russia's invasion of the Ukraine, PRC engagement in the Caribbean, and transnational organized crime dynamics, are gravely stressing and transforming the Caribbean.

The Struggle for the Soul of the Latin American Left

This report argues that the struggle between democratic elements and authoritarian populist elements of the increasingly dominant but diverse Latin American left will define the future of the region, with significant implications for the US.

Parallel Universes: EconVue Spotlight April 2022 - Has the 4th Estate Eaten Up the Other Three?

Most Russian experts and military strategists I follow doubted Putin would invade Ukraine. I agreed with their rational arguments, but here we are. I’m reminded of the Haruki Murakami novel 1Q84. The heroine alights from her taxi and gradually discovers that she is living in a world where everything is almost the same, except there are two moons. Since Covid began, I doubt I’m alone in feeling that I have somehow gotten off at the wrong stop, and am living in a hellishly perverse alternative universe.

Trump’s Attacks on the 2020 Census Cost Six States with Large Minority Populations One Seat Each in Congress

As we will see, the largescale errors in the Census cost New York, Texas, Florida, Arizona, California, and New Jersey one seat each—and resulted in an extra representative for provided an extra representative for Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Montana, Wisconsin, and Indiana.

The Risks of Chinese Engagement in the Americas

This short work gives particular attention the increasing PRC presence in the digital economy and its technologies, as well as providing recommendations for US policymakers.

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