Pulse: China


Will US-China trade war reshape global value chains?

China says the United States has waged a trade war, while America’s intelligence agency is now terming it as a China-led cold war. Nevertheless, the trade brouhaha continues. Trumponomics ceases to be rhetoric anymore, and Xinomics is candidly reciprocal. In fact, neither countries were striving for autarky, nor is the situation as grim as it was in the 1930s. Yet the present scenario is destined to reach alarming proportions, as its spillover effect has begun to deter the global value chains (GVCs) that perennially define the geo-economic architecture of international business today.

EconVue Spotlight MEXICO

Mexico matters. In addition to being our southern neighbor, Mexico is our third largest trading partner, after China and Canada. It is ranked as the 15th largest economy in the world. On Sunday the country experienced a seismic change in leadership. Fueled by anger at violence and corruption, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the 64-year old populist center left candidate best known as AMLO, was elected by a clear majority in all but one state and a simple majority in both houses. He had promised to Make Mexico Great Again.

Mexico Likely to Elect 'AMLO' President — How Will It Impact the Region?

This is a shortened version of my longer report posted at Newsmax.

EconVue Spotlight

EconVue Spotlight May 13, 2018 China's New Era?

I agree with a Twitter commentator today who said that US-China trade relations was giving him  whiplash after President Trump’s volte-face on ZTE.  For context, I recommend two new books with a longer view on the changes taking place in China.  The first, “The End of an Era” by Carl Minzer is truly a must-read for any China watcher. Devin Stewart at the Carnegie Council conducted a wonderful interview with Prof Minzer, which I’ve included below. 

China Recognizes Dominican Republic — We Should Worry

I would like to share with you my just-published article on the Dominican Republic's May 1, 2018 establishment of diplomatic relations with the PRC.  The work examines the activities which are likely to follow, based on other countries which have changed their diplomatic posture toward China in recent years.  It looks at the implications for the Dominican Republic and the region, and concludes with recommendations for US policymakers.The article is originally published by Newsmax.

Changing Perceptions is the Key to US-Sino Cooperation

"America and China are inevitably going to compete, but it would be unwise and even dangerous for the two countries to become enemies"

“Nobody wants a trade war”, wrote Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in an opinion piece for The Washington Post, one of the most influential newspapers in America. This viewpoint must be widely echoed by most people who advocate free trade and globalization, but will the “America First” Trump administration be happy to agree?

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