Pulse: US


EconVue Spotlight - The Energy Standard

There are two reports I always look forward to reading each June: the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, and analyst Mary Meeker’s annual report on Internet trends. For those interested in the art of investment prognostication, a stroll through the archives of Meeker’s reports since 1996 is fascinating. They chart the growth of the Internet and the disruption of global communications that have impacted nearly everything.

EconVue Spotlight - Iran Podcast & China's New Long March

As some of my more patient friends know, I have been toiling away at a book on Chinese monetary history during the Interwar period off and on for some years.  Immersing myself in the public and private words of the historic figures of the 1930’s has perhaps sensitized me to the propensity of even well-intentioned leaders to glide into chaos.  That which is unthinkable inexorably becomes inevitable.
 

‘Tariff War’ Flares Up, But Deal Still Likely Later this Year


Today, five days after he tweeted this deadline and nine months since he first declared the intention to do so, President Trump raised the tariff on $200B of imports from China from the +10% first applied in March 2018 to +25%. The action follows China’s message to U.S. negotiators backtracking on a number of earlier promises to increase intellectual property protections.
 

EconVue Spotlight - Unconventional Wisdom

EconVue is about the Gettier Problem which to simplify means that just because one is justified in drawing a conclusion, doesn’t mean that it is true. For example, we certainly could be justified in thinking that racial hatred has increased in the US based on media and news reports.  However, a fascinating University of Pennsylvania study says that this isn’t true, and that actually racial prejudice has been declining.
 

Core PCE Inflation Lull Should Be Short-Lived

FMI’s commentary on this morning’s “shockingly low” 19Q1 core PCE deflator.

Culture Change Isn't a Natural for Healthcare Organizations

Written by David Burda, News Editor & Columnist of 4sight Health.

“We must begin by asking it, ‘What is losing?’  Losing is a disease. As contagious as polio.  Losing is a disease. As contagious as syphilis. Losing is a disease. As contagious as bubonic plague. Attacking one but infecting all.  But curable.”—Dr. Knobb addressing the New York Knights in The Natural.

Who Owns Americans’ Personal Information and What Is It Worth?

Co-authored with  Siddhartha Aneja.

No Danger of a Trump ‘Takeover’ of the Fed

Mike’s commentary on the struggle, or lack thereof, for “partisan” control of the Fed.
 
Also this afternoon, the Minutes of the March FOMC meeting had few newsworthy disclosures that Powell had not already covered in his post-meeting news conference. We were pleasantly surprised, however, to see that “participants also mentioned a number of upside risks.” Powell had focused overwhelmingly on downside risks.
 
No Danger of a Trump ‘Takeover’ of the Fed
 

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