Pulse: Politics


The Latest Outlook on the Economy: Another Canary Swoons

For several months, I’ve written about growing signals of a possible recession perhaps 10 to 15 months from now. The yield curve has flattened dramatically, because global investors are nervous about our near-term prospects. Investment growth after depreciation has slowed, even with Trump’s costly tax cuts. Inflation has picked up some steam, and interest rates have risen accordingly. Most important, productivity has been virtually flat for three years, and the inflation-adjusted earnings of a typical household have fallen now for more than a year.

The Decennial Census has Big Political and Scientific Problems, and Not for the First Time

This article was originally published by Brookings Institute.

US Smart to Assist Latin America With Democratic Governance

I am sharing my just published article, making the case for US policymakers to use "democratic governance" as an orienting strategic concept for engagement with Latin America.

The article first appeared on the website of Newsmax.

Security Challenges in Ecuador

EconVue Spotlight MEXICO

Mexico matters. In addition to being our southern neighbor, Mexico is our third largest trading partner, after China and Canada. It is ranked as the 15th largest economy in the world. On Sunday the country experienced a seismic change in leadership. Fueled by anger at violence and corruption, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the 64-year old populist center left candidate best known as AMLO, was elected by a clear majority in all but one state and a simple majority in both houses. He had promised to Make Mexico Great Again.

Mexico Likely to Elect 'AMLO' President — How Will It Impact the Region?

This is a shortened version of my longer report posted at Newsmax.

Nicaragua’s Struggle for Dignity and Survival

I would like to share with you my just published article on the  unfolding crisis in Nicaragua and its significance for the US and the region, with recommendations for U.S. policymakers. 

This article was originally published by Global Americans.

Having been expelled from Nicaragua in June 2016 by the Sandinista government, the struggle of the Nicaraguan people for dignity, democracy and a decent livelihood against a corrupt authoritarian regime is a theme particularly close to my heart.

Trump Lags behind His Predecessors on Economic Growth

Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that his economic record as president is the best in generations. So I measured his record so far on growth and business investment with the records of his nine predecessors since JFK over comparable periods, starting with their third quarters in office. Brookings issued my results today: Trump beats the four who faced recessions in their first year in office -- nothing to brag about there. Among the other five who took office during expansions, as he did, Trump is tied in last place. Pretty lame.

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