Pulse: Politics

Defense and Security Challenges in the Dominican Republic

I am sharing my article on security challenges in the Dominican Republic, just published (in Spanish) in Guarnicion, the journal of the armed forces of the Dominican Republic and the English-language adaptation of the article was published by the eJournal IndraStra. The full text of the English adaption of the article is listed below.

Chinese Engagement in Latin America and the US Response: "Taking Off the Gloves"

I am sharing my new editorial, just published by the news service UNIVISION.  The work examines the PRC's expanding, increasingly self-confident engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean, as manifested in the recent China-CELAC summit in Santiago Chile.  The work notes China's growing pursuit of political and security engagement with the hemisphere, as well as its surprising willingness to acknowledge its intention to move the region away from its relationships with the US and other "great powers."  

Round-Up: 17Q4 Real GDP Growth Likely to Stay at +2.6% in Second Report; Budget Deal Approved

With the government open for business as usual this morning, book-valuewholesale inventories were reported up +0.4% in December. Including revisions, these data were in-line with BEA’s estimates in the Advance Report of 17Q4 GDP. FMI is still tracking no net change to 17Q4’s +2.6% real GDP growth in the Second Report on February 28.  

Moreno Reviving Ecuador's Participatory Democracy

I am sharing my new article on the policies and challenges of Ecuador's recently elected president Lenin Moreno, with recommendations for US policymakers.  The article emphasizes the positive steps that President Moreno has taken in reviving an inclusive, democratic discourse in his country, as well as opportunities for the US to respectfully work with him and his government, despite persistent policy differences. The article is originally published through Newsmax.

What to Watch for in 2018

Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year.

1: Central banks
The era of ultra-cheap money, which began during the global financial crisis, is drawing to a close. Already, the US Federal Reserve has raised its key policy interest rate target four times since the end of 2015, and has begun to wind back its bloated balance sheet (something which will take a very long time to complete).

China’s Relationship with Chile: The Struggle for the Future Regime of the Pacific

I am sharing with you my article on Chinese engagement with Chile, recently published by the e-journal "China Brief."  The article, based on research and interactions during my November 2017 engagement in Santiago is also available at the website of the Jamestown Foundation.

Confronting Complex Multidimensional Security Challenges in Trinidad and Tobago

I am passing along the English-language version of the article on Trinidad and Tobago, just published by the Center for Doctrine of the Colombian National Army (CEDOE) in its official professional journal "Military Expertise." Click here to read the full text of the report.


The Year of the Dictators

The global economy ends 2017 and enters 2018 in apparent good health.  The odds are that world GDP growth, measured at market exchange rates, will continue at a year-over-year rate of nearly 3%.  The main economic risks to this scenario—primarily the deflation of asset bubbles in the US or a debt crisis in China’s corporate sector—seem unlikely.  More worrisome are geopolitical trends.  

Brazil: Between Cooperation and Deterrence

I am sharing my article on Brazil’s security challenges, and the case for strengthened U.S.-Brazil cooperation, based on my recent trip to the Brazilian Army's Strategic Studies Center (CEEEx) in Brasilia.  The article is originally published at the Global Americans.

Note: The title was inspired by the PhD thesis of LTC Oscar Medeiros Filho of the Brazilian Army Strategic Studies Center, and used with his permission.