The future shape of the economic crisis driven by the federal government’s inadequate response to the coronavirus pandemic are coming into focus. The widespread social isolation that has sent both the demand for and production of goods and services into a free-fall reflects our spotty knowledge about the contagiousness and lethality of the virus. At the same time, we don’t know where hospital admissions will spike next. These new facts of life point to two potential economic scenarios, based on aspects of the virus that are beyond our control.
This report is written by Eleanor Hughes, Writer & Commentator, East Asian Affairs.
The ongoing Covid-19 crisis can probably be seen as a “black swan” not only for China but also the whole world. It is largely unpredictable but with severe consequences.
There is no doubt that China has suffered the most from this crisis economically, socially and politically. However, it is highly debatable whether China or the Communist Party is approaching an inflection point of possible breakup or imminent revolution.
The title of this session is leadership dialogue and the focus is “deepening China and EU economic and financial cooperation” in what this forum is calling the new global context. I’d like to use my time to look briefly at two dynamics that are affecting the evolution of this China/EU cooperation and then conclude with a comment about the importance of political leadership for quality outcomes as well as for a more peaceful world order.
1.The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is faced with unprecedented anti-government demonstrations. Whether there was foreign intervention (there might have been), the scale of the riots and the depth of popular anger has been unprecedented, especially come from the “deplorables”. The regime reacted with extreme brutality. However, it has been forced to acknowledge the killings, especially at the city of Mahshahr—even Parliament is reacting, with talk of a special commission of inquiry
On May 15th-16th, the Conference on Dialogue of Asian Civilizations (CDAC) was held in Beijing, another important domestic diplomatic event in 2019, following the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) and the 2019 Beijing International Horticultural Exhibition.
The CDAC was initiated by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 4th summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia in 2014 and was formally proposed at the annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia in 2015.
Mike’s commentary on the struggle, or lack thereof, for “partisan” control of the Fed.
Also this afternoon, the Minutes of the March FOMC meeting had few newsworthy disclosures that Powell had not already covered in his post-meeting news conference. We were pleasantly surprised, however, to see that “participants also mentioned a number of upside risks.” Powell had focused overwhelmingly on downside risks.
No Danger of a Trump ‘Takeover’ of the Fed