Pulse


The Shutdown Poses a Serious Threat to the American Economy

The government shutdown has produced a serious economic threat that’s hiding in plain sight: The people who collect, analyze and release all the basic data tracking the path of the economy and its principal aspects are on furlough.  So, the shutdown has forced thousands of companies and financial institutions and millions of investors to rely on guesswork instead of data, and each week the problem grows worse.

Beware Of Forecasts - EconVue Spotlight

Predicting the future is notoriously difficult, but that doesn’t stop the flurry of prognostications every January. We’ve gathered a selection of 2019 forecasts, including some predicting low probability events, because just imagining the unlikely can reveal horizons sometimes obstructed by conventional wisdom.

2019 Outlook

Like previous “year ahead” reviews I have published on EconVue, this is not intended as a prediction of how events will necessarily unfold in real life. Instead, as always my intent is above all to consider the main risks to the stability to the international political and economic environment in various regions of the world that I am relatively familiar with.

Europe

2019: Trends, Risks and Hard Questions in Latin America

I am sharing with  you my new article examining trends and challenges facing Latin America and the Caribbean as we begin 2019.  The work focuses on the reinforcing effects of the fragmentation and other changes in the criminal groups across the region, the advance of the PRC, and deepening political crises in Guyana, Venezuela, Honduras, and Guatemala.  The article also highlights significant developments and challenges in Mexico and Colombia as countries of concern.

Getting Precise about Precision Medicine: Balancing Hope, Potential and Cost

Co-wrote with Dr. Harold Picken, Huron Consulting.

Definitions of precision medicine are anything but precise. For seriously ill patients and their families, precision medicine therapies provide a hope when all else has failed. They’re willing to risk long odds for the chance to improve or extend life, but they want health insurers to cover the costs.

The Future of China’s Reform and Opening-Up

December 18, 2018, marks the 40th anniversary of the official beginning of China’s reform and opening-up, when the third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was held from December 18th to the 22nd, 1978.

Chinese Illegal Fishing Activities in Latin America

This article is about activities of the Chinese deepwater fishing fleet in Latin American waters, and their negative impact on the livelihood of some of the region's most vulnerable communities.  Although the media has highlighted a number of high-profile cases off the coasts of Argentina and Ecuador, in my research, I was struck by how widespread Chinese violations of the Exclusive Economic Zones of Latin American states, and other practices such as overfishing, trawl nets, etc appear to be, mirroring the damage that such activities have already caused in Asia and Africa.

EconVue Spotlight - History is Back

I normally feel after reading, reviewing, and discussing the events of the previous week that I’m able to discern a direction or constructive theme.  Today however, every corner of the world seems mired in some degree of turmoil, and markets are reacting. There is so much noise that it is difficult to decide what is causing this new volatility. Is it China, the Fed, the Mueller investigation, Yellow Jackets, or technology run amuck?

Beneath-Trend Growth for World Economy in Early 2019

Forecasts for 2019 are now coalescing. The typical view is that the first half of the year will be more difficult for the world economy than 2017 and 2018, with beneath-trend growth likely. As has been anticipated in these notes for some time, the Eurozone is the focus of concern. Not only will the European Central Bank end its asset purchases next year, but warnings are being given to the weakest banks – the banks that cannot easily fund their assets from market sources – that the ECB’s long-term loan facilities to them may not be extended in mid-2020.

Taiwan’s Struggle for Partners and Survival

From November 26 to December 2, 2018, I traveled to Taipei, Taiwan to speak at the prestigious private university, Tamkang. There I had the chance to interact with academics, officials, and students regarding Taiwan’s relationships in Latin America and the Caribbean and its associated struggle for diplomatic and existential survival.

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