Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year.
1: Central banks
The era of ultra-cheap money, which began during the global financial crisis, is drawing to a close. Already, the US Federal Reserve has raised its key policy interest rate target four times since the end of 2015, and has begun to wind back its bloated balance sheet (something which will take a very long time to complete).
In the mid-1800s, English philosopher and political economist John Stuart Mill developed “Utilitarianism,” a framework for making moral decisions. In Mill’s formulation, an action achieves optimal social utility when it advances the well-being of the most people, i.e. “the greatest good for the greatest number.”
I am sharing with you my article on Chinese engagement with Chile, recently published by the e-journal "China Brief." The article, based on research and interactions during my November 2017 engagement in Santiago is also available at the website of the Jamestown Foundation.
Chicago's FinTech development and investment reputation has been on the rise, and we're expecting big things in this city for 2018. Crain's Chicago Business suggests that Google is planning a major new center here, while city officials remain hopeful that it will make the first cut for Amazon's HQ2.
I am passing along the English-language version of the article on Trinidad and Tobago, just published by the Center for Doctrine of the Colombian National Army (CEDOE) in its official professional journal "Military Expertise." Click here to read the full text of the report.
In 1919, journalist John Reed published Ten Days that Shook the World, a first-hand account of the October 1917 Russian Revolution. During that dramatic 10-day period, Vladimir Lenin’s Bolsheviks took control of the Russian government and established the world’s first socialist government. Russia and the world would never be the same.
Every year we ask our EconVue contributors to prognosticate about the coming year. Although many people value economics as a way to forecast the future, most economists are historians rather than visionaries. However, if one understands current trends and events, then it is possible to make some educated guesses about the future. At the very least, it helps us create scenarios, both likely and unlikely, that challenge the conventional wisdom. Which is exactly our mission at EconVue.