Beyond the Pessimism: Why Sustained, Healthy Development Will be the New Normal for China’s Economy

This article originally published in South China Morning Post.

Is Economics a Closed Shop?

The ranking of the world's leading economists has remained essentially unchanged since 2006. Post-2008, we are hearing from the same people, mostly white males now in their 60's. Federico Fubini asks, "Might the world’s leading economists be so keen to protect their own ideas that they ignore (or, worse, stifle) innovation from unexpected quarters?"

The Unsustainable Economics of ISIL

ISIL is not a juggernaut, according to a recent article in Politico by UC San Diego economics professor Eli Berman and associate professor Jacob Shapiro at Princeton, "Why ISIL Will Fail on Its Own".  Oil revenues in particular are not sustainable:

Report from Beijing - 2015 International Finance Forum

The following remarks with subsequent modification were delivered at the November 6-8 convening of the International Finance Forum, headquartered in Beijing. IFF’s mission is to facilitate high-level, multilateral dialogue and promote insights about current issued defining the international economy. The writer is a member of the IFF Academic Committee.

Global Terrorism Index 2015

Today the Institute for Economics and Peace released their third Global Terrorism Index. This year, their annual November release has been preceded by devastating terrorist attacks in Pairs, Beirut and Baghdad. It is more important than ever to understand the underlying drivers of terrorism and violent extremism. Please click here to access this detailed report.

Child Care Workers aren’t Paid Enough to Make Ends Meet

Child care workers play an important role in the U.S. economy by allowing parents of young children to pursue employment outside the home and providing children a stimulating and nurturing environment in which to learn and grow.

Perspective on China’s Rise

The economic imperatives of global powers are changing approaches to international politics.

China’s rise could reshape an icon of international relations, post-World War II -- the Transatlantic Relationship between the United States and Germany – and Europe. An economic symbiosis that addresses China’s need for technology and Germany’s search for export markets could drive a shift in shared foreign policy interests on the part of Washington and Berlin.

Barry Eichengreen on China

Recent actions by Chinese authorities to rein in stock market volatility, depreciate the RMB and generally arrest actions they view as adverse to achieving requisite GDP growth raise questions that may end up overshadowing the worry about the economy’s fundamentals.

Authorities’ actions are giving rise to questions about the credibility of those who make the decisions and the capacity of those who advocate reforms to withstand pressures to achieve 7% GDP growth at all costs.

Greece: The Turning Point

Economist Anotole Kaletsky has not joined the Greek chorus bemoaning the recent deal between Athens and the EU.  He is instead refreshingly optimistic that it was a good deal for both sides, and is sustainable.

...the main conditions now seem to be in place for a sustainable recovery in Greece. Conventional wisdom among economists and investors has a long record of failing to spot major turning points; so the near-universal belief today that Greece faces permanent depression is no reason to despair.

Trade Trials: Getting TPP Right Is Better than Getting It Fast

“Foreign Affairs” ran a commentary by me on TPP, whose main message is that getting TPP right is better than getting it fast, for both economic and geopolitical reasons. But that will be very hard to do with the Obama administration’s current negotiating stance. Here is the URL: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2015-05-12/trade-trials.