Pulse: International Trade and Investment


US Smart to Assist Latin America With Democratic Governance

I am sharing my just published article, making the case for US policymakers to use "democratic governance" as an orienting strategic concept for engagement with Latin America.

The article first appeared on the website of Newsmax.

Will US-China trade war reshape global value chains?

China says the United States has waged a trade war, while America’s intelligence agency is now terming it as a China-led cold war. Nevertheless, the trade brouhaha continues. Trumponomics ceases to be rhetoric anymore, and Xinomics is candidly reciprocal. In fact, neither countries were striving for autarky, nor is the situation as grim as it was in the 1930s. Yet the present scenario is destined to reach alarming proportions, as its spillover effect has begun to deter the global value chains (GVCs) that perennially define the geo-economic architecture of international business today.

EconVue Spotlight MEXICO

Mexico matters. In addition to being our southern neighbor, Mexico is our third largest trading partner, after China and Canada. It is ranked as the 15th largest economy in the world. On Sunday the country experienced a seismic change in leadership. Fueled by anger at violence and corruption, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the 64-year old populist center left candidate best known as AMLO, was elected by a clear majority in all but one state and a simple majority in both houses. He had promised to Make Mexico Great Again.

EconVue Spotlight

EconVue Spotlight May 13, 2018 China's New Era?

I agree with a Twitter commentator today who said that US-China trade relations was giving him  whiplash after President Trump’s volte-face on ZTE.  For context, I recommend two new books with a longer view on the changes taking place in China.  The first, “The End of an Era” by Carl Minzer is truly a must-read for any China watcher. Devin Stewart at the Carnegie Council conducted a wonderful interview with Prof Minzer, which I’ve included below. 

The IMF Report: Short-Term Resilience, Rising Medium-Term Risks

The IMF/World Bank held their Spring Meeting in Washington. The IMF issued the semi-annual updates of its two major reports-the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global Financial Stability Report (GSFR).  In these reports, the IMF remained upbeat about the short-term outlook for the global economy, but warned about rising downside risks, especially in the medium- to long-term.

How the 2018 Summit of the Americas can still make a difference

I just published article on the Summit of the Americas in Lima, Peru.  Although the article was written before the missile strike in Syria, and doesn't capture the impact of the action on the summit agenda, I believe that the basic analysis of the conservative trend in the region is consistent with what happened at the summit, and the article's arguments about the agenda for the Americas may continue to be of use to you as a point of reference. This article was originally published by the Global Americans.

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