EconVue Spotlight

posted by Lyric Hughes Hale on November 7, 2016 - 8:58am

This US election cycle has had more ups and downs than Game 7 of the World Series. The  sturm und drang  has perhaps defocused us from current issues and uncertainty clouding the global economy.  In our commentary roundup, we will get the US out of the way first, but won’t neglect China, Russia, and the UK, each facing crises of their own. We will end with steady-as-she-goes Japan, and baseball. Fun fact: the victory parade here in Chicago on Friday was the 7th largest gathering of people in human history. 

1.  Probability of a Trump Victory Remains Underpriced on Markets
Financial Times 11/3/16 Twitter @FT

2.  Trump terrifies Wall Street: Professional investors are panicking — should you?
Angelo Young 11/6/16 Salon

3.  Memo to the Press: What Comey's Letter Does and Doesn't Mean
Benjamin Wittes 10/28/16 LawFare

A balanced, scholarly perspective.  What does today’s letter mean? It is anyone ’s guess and the race is still too close to call. 

4.  Think trade deals have destroyed US manufacturing? Look at this graph
Rob Williams 11/5/16 Twitter @Roberton3Will

Robotics and other methods of enhancing productivity, not just trade deals created these declines.

5.  Chart:The Evolution of America's Energy Supply From 1776
DataStories 10/23/16 Twitter @LindaRegber

The US is a carbon fuel based economy. Renewables provide a tiny percentage of energy. 

6.  UK economy grows 0.5% in three months after Brexit vote
Sky News 10/27/16

Better than expected.  Has the recent High Court decision requiring parliamentary assent increased or decreased volatility in the UK economy? Is there a case for a strengthening of ties between the British Commonwealth countries that could benefit Australia and Canada?

7.  I'm an Anti-Putin Russian and Clinton Makes Me Nervous
Leonid Bershidsky 10/11/16 Bloomberg

"The mismatch between an ideological Clinton and an opportunist Putin is fraught... I'm an anti-Putin Russian."

8.  Chart: The CFTC Russian Ruble Net Speculative Positions 
SoberLook 10/22/16 Twitter @SoberLook

War rumors  are endemic in Russia.

9. World Currency Markets Brace for China Reserve Shock
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 11/6/16 Telegraph UK

"Currency experts fear a potentially drastic fall in China's foreign reserves in October, a shock that risks reviving last year's currency panic and further rattling fragile world stock markets." An announcement is scheduled in Beijing on Monday.

10.  China Deal Watch
Bloomberg 2016 

Terrific visualization of the diversity of Chinese overseas investments.

11.  The Chinese Yuan Becomes Official Currency in Zimbabwe
Mathew Ogunsina 11/1/16 HowAfrica

Zimbabwe is also trying to eliminate cash.  The country might be scorned politically but it remains fascinating to economists for its hyperinflation, flipping from the dollar  to the yuan as its currency, and now, for becoming a cashless society.

12.  As China Liquidates US Treasuries, It is "Gobbling" Up Japanese Government Bonds
Tyler Durden 10/26/16 ZeroHedge 

Is this why the yen is so strong? 

13.  Assessing Abenomics as Formerly Japan-Specific Issues Spread to Other Developed Economies
Akinari Horii 10/14/16 Nippon. com

The author was previously Assistant Governor at the Bank of Japan.

14.  Plenty of Heroes, No Goats: An Epic Game 7 Finally Delivers Cubs a World Series
Barry Svrluga 11/3/16 Washington Post

Great read and antidote to the above. 


Introducing Australia-based EconVue expert Saul Eslake

Saul is a leading global economist with a focus on Australian and Asian economies, globalization, productivity, housing and labor markets, commodities, Australian society and politics. 

Yellen Likely to Be Reappointed under Clinton or Trump
Michael Lewis 11/4/16

No matter who wins the presidency on Tuesday, fiscal policy will continue on the muted course of the past five years.

FMI November 2016 Economic and Investment Outlook
Michael Lewis 11/3/16

Election Day: Why It Matters and Why, Mostly, It Doesn’t

Halloween Special: How Hillary Can Handle Scary Interest Rate Hikes 
Robert Shapiro 10/31/16

The catch is that for most households, these gains came after a decade of income losses from 2001 to 2012. Hillary’s first challenge is to avoid a recession that could overwhelm most people’s recent gains — and her opportunity is to provide four more years of income progress that could well make most Americans optimistic again.

What They Do With Your Money, a Book Review by Lyric Hughes Hale
Lyric Hughes Hale 10/11/16

What They Do With Your Money: How the Financial System Fails Us, and How to Fix it   by Jon Lukomnik, David Pitt-Watson, Stephen Davis

Despite its reputation for employing the best and the brightest the finance industry is inefficient. Since the time of the railroads, over the past 130 years, when other industries have generated huge increases in productivity for their customers, the finance sector has generated none at all.  Is this really true, and how does fintech figure into financial industry productivity?

China's Fall 2016 Latin America Charm Offensive
R. Evan Ellis 10/21/16

Analyzing the important shifts in China's relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean that have occurred during the past month.

Data Power
Collin Canright 10/31/16

The digital product challenge in the United States still is the 40-something year old payments infrastructure and the need to bring it up to realtime speed. Innovation in payments and fintech is on the top, customer-facing service layer. The delivery and infrastructure layers are largely untouched.

Value Quest: Capital Formation Challenges for Non-Profit Health Systems
David W. Johnson 10/27/16

In consumer-driven healthcare, health companies will provide care where and how customers want to receive it. Operating in this “retail” paradigm requires not-for-profit health systems to rethink market positioning, strategic alliances, capital formation and governance. Sustainability requires making the right strategic and resource allocation decisions along with superior execution.

Companies' Pension Funds Fail to Buy into Japan’s Stewardship Code
Nicholas Benes 10/7/16 Twitter @benesjp

EconVue expert weighs in: " Asset owners, especially foreign investors, need to play a more active role: gaiatsu."