Report

TOE Alert: Machinery Orders up a Lot, But Beware of Monthly Gyrations

posted by Richard Katz on December 09, 2015

Found in Japan, categorized in Macro

Tags: Richard Katz TOE Japan machinery order

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Headline

Bottom line: core orders could be a genuine “green shoot,” or one month’s surprising number may be misleading us. We’ve no choice but to wait for a few more months’ worth of data.

Abstract

Japan-watchers got very excited because core private machinery orders in October were up 10% on a month-on-month basis, However, the monthly movements in orders have very large gyrations, even though the most volatile elements are removed from core orders. Bottom line: core orders could be a genuine “green shoot,” or one month’s surprising number may be misleading us.

About Richard Katz

Richard Katz is Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Council for Ethics In International Affairs, the New York correspondent for Weekly Toyo Keizai, a leading Japanese business magazine, and formerly the editor of The Oriental Economist Report, a monthly newsletter on Japan.

Mr. Katz has taught about Japan’s economy as an Adjunct Associate Professor at the New York University Stern School of Business, and as a Visiting Lecturer in Economics at the State University of New York (SUNY) at Stony Brook.

Mr. Katz is the author of two books on Japan's economic travails and has just finished a third book on reviving entrepreeurship in Japan.

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