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The Oriental Economist Report - April 2017

The last issue of Rick's TOE including A Look back on Our Hits and Misses - Twenty Years of TOE, No Easy Reform Options for Japan, Scandal surrounding ultra-nationalist school - Abe’s Takakorobi?, 20 Years of Reform Efforts - Deeper Currents, Mireya Solis - Will Trump Hit Japan on Trade? and Small Talk.

The Oriental Economist Report - March 2017

Topics covered in the March 2017 issue of the Oriental Economist Report include Corporate “elephants” and start-ups - “Open Innovation”; Conditions, Not Culture - Declining US start-ups C, Behind-the-scenes maneuvers - Success at the summit; Beyond short-term summit success - An inch ahead is darkness; Economy Watch on Japan and Small Talk

The Oriental Economist Report - January 2017

Richard Katz's January issue of the Oriental Economist includes reports on Why Japan Needs Boost in Productivity - Risk of Zero Per Capita Growth, The Abe-Putin tête-à-tête without Notetakers - “Secret Understanding”, and No Equivalent to Trump or Le Pen or Brexit - Why No Populism in Japan?

December 2016 TOE

Rick's December 016 issue of the Oriental Economist covers following topics, Rust Belt voters won’t like the consequences of trade war - Be careful what you wish for, Putin ‘flips the table’ -Trepidation over Trump, NAFTA and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross - Can Ross restrain Trump? Japan auto parts firm relies on NAFTA, Proposals to increase electoral power of the young - ‘Silver democracy’.

TOE Report: Third Term for Abe

Third Term for Abe, Early election escapades, The Politics of Japan’s trade strategy, Economy Watch

Nurturing Entrepreneurs, Part 2

Rick's October issue of the Oriental Economist includes topics of Risk Averse Culture or Adverse Risk/Reward Ratio - Nurturing Entrepreneurs, Abe’s Agenda 2017 -Election being Planned, BOJ Waves the White Flag, Rightist Nihon Kaigi Organization-Is It Really a Menace? Japan Business Pessimistic Japan-China Political Ties Sour

TPP on the Ropes, Part 5

Key points: - TPP, like other FTAs, is copied and pasted from past FTAs - More text from past American FTAs was copied verbatim into TPP than text from any other country; Japan came in eighth - US share was even higher in chapters where it had a high priority, e.g. nearly 80% of text on investment in past US FDI’s was lifted into TPP’s investment chapter ​- Since TPP is intended to be the template for future FTAs and to incorporate more and more Pacific countries, including China, this gives US big leg up on others

TOE Alert: BOJ throws in the towel

The keypoints of this report include, - The Bank of Japan has abandoned the pretense that it can achieve its 2% inflation target in two years, or any other particular timeframe - In the face of pressure from private banks, it refrained from going more deeply into negative rate territory regarding bank reserves at the BOJ - In another so-called “new framework” it has switched its main operating target: from an increase in the monetary base to keeping 10-year bond yields at zero - The BOJ also issued a Comprehensive Assessment of why it failed to meet its 2% target, but there is not a lot of culpa in its mea culpa; it keeps insisting that its policy will eventually work - There is no talk of what is really needed: a fiscal-monetary combination

TPP on the Ropes, Part 2

Key points included in this report are, - We were cautioned by some pro-TPP players “never say never,” so let’s put odds of TPP ratification in lame duck at 10-15% ​- Many normally pro-trade members of Congress on both sides of the aisle are deserting the TPP, either opposing it outright or saying they are “studying” it

TPP on the Ropes, Part 1

Key points including in this report are, - TPP will not be voted on in lame duck session of Congress in November-December - If Clinton is elected, she is unlikely to revisit TPP in any form during first year or two in office, if ever - Without US ratification, TPP will die; TPP rules require ratification by at least six of the eleven TPP countries, representing at least 85% of TPP-wide GDP; that 85% target cannot be reached without ratification by both the US and Japan - Other countries are unwilling to reopen negotiations with the US, even in the form of so‑called “side-letters,” because, even then, no President can assure them Congress will not come back with even more demands

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