Growth Outlook and Business Cycle

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Data Round-Up: Real Equipment Spending Likely Up an OK +4% in 18Q1

FMI’s analysis of today’s March Durable Goods Orders and March Advance Indicators (international trade-goods, wholesale & retail inventories) reports, plus the latest Weekly UI Claims results.

Data Round-Up: Existing Home Sales Stay on So-So Course in 18Q1

FMI’s review of this morning’s March Existing Home Sales report.

Jobs Shortfall in March Reflected Shifts in the Weather

FMI’s commentary on the March “shortfall” in payroll jobs and its likely cause.

Data Round-Up: Strong JOLTS Show Labor Market Still Quite Healthy

FMI’s review of today’s February JOLTS report and March Bank Lending & Money Supply results.

Data Round-Up: Home Prices, 'Jobs Plentiful' Readings Remain Quite Upbeat

FMI’s review of January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and March Conference Board Consumer Confidence, featuring Jobs-Plentiful/Jobs-Hard-to-Get data (both also attached as a single PDF), plus our review of today’s March Fed bank regional business surveys (Dallas and Richmond).

Data Round-Up: UI Claims & Home Prices Strong; New Trump Tariffs

FMI’s review the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.

Data Round-Up: Existing Home Sales Rebound; Lean Inventory, Bad Weather Still Problems

FMI’s review of this morning’s February Existing Home Sales report.

Data Round-Up: Mfg Output Surges; Single-Family Housing Starts Continue to Trend Up

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s February Housing Starts, February Industrial Production and January JOLTS reports, and February Bank Lending & Money Supply data

Data Round-Up: Soft Retail Sales a Pause, Not a Problem

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s February Retail Sales, January Business Inventories, and February PPI reports.

Data Round-Up: Payrolls Post Stunning Job Gains in February

FMI’s analysis of today’s February Employment report as well as notes on the details in President Trump’s tariff announcement.

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