Growth Outlook and Business Cycle

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Trump GDP Growth Projections Are High But Not Absurd

FMI’s commentary on the White House budget proposal.

Data Round-Up: UI Claims Very Healthy; Budget Deal to Spike Up Federal Deficit

FMI’s review of today’s Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.

Data Round-Up: Crediting Tax Cuts, NMI Starts Out Strong for 2018

FMI’s analysis of today’s January Non-Manufacturing Index and our Preview of the rest of this week’s handful of data releases.

FMI February 2018 Economic & Investment Outlook

FMI's complete February 2018 Economic & Investment Outlook.

January Employment Preview: Expect Hefty +250K Private Jobs Gain

FMI’s Preview of Friday’s January Employment report and our review of 17Q4 Productivity & Labor Costs and the latest Weekly Initial UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.

Data Round-Up: PMI Starts 2018 on a Robust Note

FMI’s analysis of today’s January PMI and December Construction reports and a review of 17Q4 GDP Sources & Assumptions and likely revisions in next month’s Second Report of 17Q4 GDP.

Data Round-Up: Chicago and Other Regional Surveys Show Solid Start to 2018

FMI’s analysis of today’s January Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and other regional business surveys, as well as our Summary of major data released in January and Schedule of major data reports in February.

FMI Weekly Data Preview: January 16-19

FMI’s Preview of the few data releases in this holiday-shortened week.

Data Round-Up: Real Consumption Likely Grew a Solid +3.75% in 17Q4

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s December Retail Sales, November Business Inventories and December CPI reports, plus December Bank Lending & Money Supply results.

Data Round-Up: Even with Soft Finish, 2017 PPI Increase Was Highest Since 2011

FMI’s reviews of today’s December PPI report (including a review of recent high-frequency inflation indicators) as well as Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.