Growth Outlook and Business Cycle

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Jobs Shortfall in March Reflected Shifts in the Weather

FMI’s commentary on the March “shortfall” in payroll jobs and its likely cause.

Data Round-Up: Strong JOLTS Show Labor Market Still Quite Healthy

FMI’s review of today’s February JOLTS report and March Bank Lending & Money Supply results.

Data Round-Up: Home Prices, 'Jobs Plentiful' Readings Remain Quite Upbeat

FMI’s review of January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and March Conference Board Consumer Confidence, featuring Jobs-Plentiful/Jobs-Hard-to-Get data (both also attached as a single PDF), plus our review of today’s March Fed bank regional business surveys (Dallas and Richmond).

Data Round-Up: UI Claims & Home Prices Strong; New Trump Tariffs

FMI’s review the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.

Data Round-Up: Existing Home Sales Rebound; Lean Inventory, Bad Weather Still Problems

FMI’s review of this morning’s February Existing Home Sales report.

Data Round-Up: Mfg Output Surges; Single-Family Housing Starts Continue to Trend Up

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s February Housing Starts, February Industrial Production and January JOLTS reports, and February Bank Lending & Money Supply data

Data Round-Up: Soft Retail Sales a Pause, Not a Problem

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s February Retail Sales, January Business Inventories, and February PPI reports.

Data Round-Up: Payrolls Post Stunning Job Gains in February

FMI’s analysis of today’s February Employment report as well as notes on the details in President Trump’s tariff announcement.

Data Round Up: Household Net Worth Jumped Another +$2T in 17Q4

FMI’s review of this afternoon’s 17Q4 U.S. Financial Accounts (formerly Flow of Funds) report.

February Employment Preview: Expect +180K Private Jobs Gain

FMI’s Preview of Friday’s February Employment report including a review of latest Weekly Initial UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.