Report

TOE Alert: GDP Falls 1.4%; Still 0.4% Below Pre-recession Peak Almost Eight Years Ago

posted by Richard Katz on February 15, 2016

Found in Japan, categorized in Macro

Tags: Richard Katz TOE GDP economic growth

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Headline

What is going on in Japan, or, more precisely, not going on? Market economies want to grow, unless they’re pushed down by something (think of a cork bouncing to the surface of your bathtub unless you keep pushing it down).

Abstract

Key points:
GDP fell at 1.4% pace in Oct-Dec.
This is the eighth quarter of the last 16 in which GDP has fallen
GDP still 0.4% below pre-recession peak almost eight years ago
At this point, Japan’s recovery from 2008-09 slump no better than in Eurozone
US, UK and Germany all doing substantially better than Japan
Biggest hit to growth is ongoing slump in consumer spending; spending even lower than it was almost four years ago in Jan-March 2012
Artificial stimulus of spending on consumer durables has gone into big reverse
Second arrow missing in action as government spending flat for last two years

About Richard Katz

Richard Katz

Richard Katz is Editor of The Oriental Economist Report, a monthly newsletter on Japan, as well as the semi-weekly TOE Alert e-mail service on Japan, and is also a special correspondent at Weekly Toyo Keizai, a leading Japanese business weekly.

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