Pulse: Macro


Pay Attention or Pay the Consequences: Investing in China

It doesn’t matter if the corporate governance is black or white, when it concerns Chinese companies – stated owned or privately-held -- investors’ due diligence is the only game worth playing.

EconVue Spotlight | Is Winter Coming to the India-China Relationship?

There has been much discussion about China’s GDP surpassing the US. Less attention has been paid to forecasts that India will become not only the most populous nation in the world by 2025, but that by 2050 the size of the Indian economy will also surpass the United States.

Recent Happenings in India

IMF: The Global Economic Recovery is on Solid Ground

The IMF’s message in its latest global economic forecasts (World Economic Outlook, 7/24/2017) is broadly unchanged from its April version.  The global economic recovery is gaining momentum and broadening in 2017, after a two-year slowdown. Global output is expected to grow by respectively 3.5% and 3.6% this year and next.  However, the IMF states that the projected composition of growth will be slightly different, with slower-than-anticipated growth in the United States compensated by faster growth in the eurozone, Canada, Japan and emerging markets.

It’s Still the Economy, Stupid!

Republicans know that the terrain for next year’s midterm elections could be treacherous.  Off the record, they bemoan their inability to enact their agenda and mourn President Donald Trump’s unpopularity.  In principle, the GOP still might get its act together and pass a tax reform with new tax breaks for middle class taxpayers.  Events unforeseen and unimagined could offer Trump a platform to renew his poplar appeal.  Even so, they’re ignoring the signs that a sagging economy next year will dominate the 2018 campaigns.

Update on Iran's Political Economy: Will Taxes Replace Oil Revenues?

While the rest of the world is preoccupied with the now familiar crises in the MENA region (refugees, the Syrian civil war, Yemen) the newly reelected president of Iran appears to be making determined moves to shift Iran’s economy from dependence upon energy resources to reliance on taxation revenues.

RMB Redux

EconVue Spotlight

EconVue Spotlight: Blockchain, ICO Special Edition

We have been following FinTech for a while now, but recently stories about blockchain and cryptocurrencies have been appearing everywhere. ICO's, or Initial Coin Offerings are beginning to look like a gold rush. Beyond the hype, driven by exponential returns for the likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum, what are the constraints on further growth?

Population, Participation and Productivity: How to Think about Long-Run Economic Growth

Here is my recent presentation to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists (ICCBE) in Paris this week. 

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