Pulse: International Trade and Investment
Here is a discussion paper I prepared for the Australia-China Annual Think Tank Economic Dialogue Hosted by the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation (CAITEC) and the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology Sydney in Beijing.
I am sharing my new monograph, "Indian and Chinese Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Comparative Assessment."
So far, President Trump has demonstrated that he will try to make good on his campaign promises, though the process may be anything but pretty. We cannot recall a president who started out “fighting” on so many fronts: still confirming most of his cabinet, nominating a Supreme Court Justice and multiple sweeping executive orders on domestic and international matters. Until the rollout of corporate and other tax proposals, which at this rate may come sooner than expected, the economic focus should be on Trump’s trade policy.
In general, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017 is likely expected to grow similarly as this year’s around 6.5%, with the consumer price index (CPI) inflating around 3%. Those officially targets will be confirmed later around 20th December 2016 at China's annual year-end top economic meeting, named the Central Economic Work Conference.
Strong fundamentals in Asia’s emerging markets may tempt outside investors to stay the course when the year turns. But a combination of domestic politics in 2017 and global uncertainties could risk becoming the nemesis of the New Year.
Questions about political continuity at home and support for reforms in Asia’s emerging markets hover over these economies’ striking potential for growth, including the outlook for strongman leaders in the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand and Xi Jinping in China and Narendra Modi in India.
Co-authored with Daniel Wagner.
After having been the top destination of inward foreign direct investment for decades, China’s investment orientation has become increasingly outward looking. In 2014, China’s outbound FDI surpassed inbound FDI for the first time. Last year, the country became the world’s second-largest source of outward FDI. And in the near term, its overseas investments are expected to grow 10 percent a year, and exceed $2 trillion by 2020.