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Data Round-Up: Initial UI Claims Trend Falls Back Below 300K
FMI’s review of the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.
‘Hot Streak’ Continues: Expect +3% GDP in 14Q4 & Beyond
FMI’s Preview of 14Q4 GDP and commentary on the impact of lower oil prices.
FOMC Stays on Course for Mid-Year Rate Hike
FMI’s commentary on today’s FOMC post-meeting statement.
Data Round-Up: Real Equipment Likely Grew a Not-Terrible 2.5% in 14Q4
FMI’s analyses of this morning’s December Durable Goods Orders report and November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices data, as well as notes on December New Home Sales, the January Richmond Fed manufacturing & services and Dallas Fed services survey, and the Conference Board’s January Consumer Confidence poll.
TOE Alert: BOJ Sends up Grey Flag in Revising Downward Its Inflation Forecast
Richard reports that the Bank of Japan Governor has raised the grey flag for achieving the 2% inflation target in two years.
TOE Alert: Offshoring Continues to Grow Despite Weak Yen
Richard analyzes the reason behind Japanese multinational companies' growing trend to produce in overseas countries, especially in Asia, despite the weakening yen.
TOE Alert: Some Real Momementum on TPP Raises Likelihood of Conclusion, But Still Uphill Climb
Richard discusses the likelihood of the U.S. and Japan reach the TPP pact this year.
Data Round-Up: Housing Starts Perk up in 14Q4, Boding Well for 2015
FMI’s review of today’s December Housing Starts results.
Slower Household Formation Driven by Demographics
FMI’s commentary on the moderation in the rate of household formation.
The Oil Price Collapse: The Need for a New Roadmap - Part 1, Resources Economics
Reserves must be seen as a co-production of nature and man-made technology. Except for wood and dung that pre-industrial populations could burn on the spot, there is no such thing as a ‘natural resource’. Our advanced energy system is fueled by a combination of stuff-in-place and human skills. Terms like ‘gas to Liquids’ (GTL) or ‘cracking’ capture the manufacturing element; the evolution underway will not stop there—to the point possibly of ‘oil’ being someday manufactured from CO2 and water. As John and Beth Mitchell and Valerie Marcel and put it in their report for Chatham House in London: “The foreseeable problem is not finite resources but the rate at which these very large resources can be converted into reserves for potential production. Reserves of oil and gas have each more than doubled since 1980–faster than the increase in production. Technologies are developing which are creating new reserves of ‘unconventional’ oil, as they already have for gas.”