FMI’s analysis of this morning’s November Employment report. Also this morning, wholesale book-value inventories were reported up a brisk +0.8+% for October.
FMI’s commentary on the March “shortfall” in payroll jobs and its likely cause.
FMI’s Preview of Friday’s November Employment report as well as our review of the latest Weekly Initial UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.
FMI’s analyses of this morning’s October Employment, October Non-Manufacturing Index and September International Trade reports.
FMI’s analyses of this morning’s October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the latest Weekly UI Claims and Rail Traffic results.
FMI’s analysis of today’s March Employment report.
FMI’s review of this morning’s July Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data.
The June rebound in payroll jobs exceeded even FMI’s upbeat expectations. While today’s report should have erased any (irrational) fears stemming from the weak May jobs report, there is still virtually no chance that the FOMC will hike rates at their meeting later this month. Among other issues, this data is “Pre-Brexit,” so policymakers will need further reassurance/time to overcome their (also irrational) worries about a European/global meltdown. FMI still expects the FOMC to resume hiking rates by year-end. The chances for action in September are now noticeably greater though Yellen will likely look for further encouragement, e.g., rising inflation/expectations.
FMI’s analysis of this morning’s February Employment and January International Trade reports.