Data Round-Up: Jobs Back on Track, Trend Looks Sustainable at +150K

posted by Michael Lewis on July 08, 2016

Found in US, categorized in Macro

Tags: FMI michael lewis June Employment Labor Participation Rate payroll

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Payrolls posted an impressive rebound, rising +287K in June. Over the past three months, payroll gains have averaged +147K/month. While down from the +200K pace in 2015, a +150K trend is clearly healthy and appears sustainable.


The June rebound in payroll jobs exceeded even FMI’s upbeat expectations. While today’s report should have erased any (irrational) fears stemming from the weak May jobs report, there is still virtually no chance that the FOMC will hike rates at their meeting later this month. Among other issues, this data is “Pre-Brexit,” so policymakers will need further reassurance/time to overcome their (also irrational) worries about a European/global meltdown. FMI still expects the FOMC to resume hiking rates by year-end. The chances for action in September are now noticeably greater though Yellen will likely look for further encouragement, e.g., rising inflation/expectations.

About Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis

Mike Lewis founded Free Market Inc. (FMI) in 1982 as a full-service economic consulting firm, providing insights and in-depth data analysis primarily for institutional money managers and corporate planning directors.

FMI has compiled a solid record of timely, independent and accurate economic forecasts.  FMI blends its unique analysis of indicators and experience with economic cycles into a consistent overall outlook. They offer both a comprehensive overview and in-depth detail that enable clients to integrate FMI’s insights into their decision-making process.

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