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TOE March 2016

Richard Katz's March 2016 issue of the Oriental Economist. Topics include Abe’s Approval: A Mile Wide, Just An Inch Deep, So Strong and Yet So Weak; Negative Rate Backfire, Tax Postponement Mulled; Raising Profits without Raising Sales, A New Bottom Line; Nuke Power Plans Don’t Add Up and Flood of New Diet Members Decimates LDP ‘Old Guard’ - Abe’s New Conservativism

TOE Alert: Abe to Get Security Bills through Despite Public Uproar

Richard explains why Abe's power within LDP will remain strong despite his recent disapproval rating has increased.

TOE Alert: Record low turnout and uncontested seats give LDP triumph in local elections

This report analyzes why Abe's victory in local elections does not reflect support for either Abenomics or any other of Abe’s policies, as claimed by the Abe team.

A Victory, not a Mandate

Hope in Abe and Abenomics disappearing.

LDP Does Not Owe Victory to Rural Districts

This report analyzes that Abe has the electoral ability to override the farm lobby on TPP—and its allies within the LDP if he wants to, since the LDP was not dependent on the rural vote for its victory.

LDP: A Victory, Not Mandate

In this report, Richard explains why Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a victory, but not a mandate.

TOE Alert: LDP Predicted tO Win 300 or More Seats

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is currently on a trajectory to win 300 or more seats in the Dec. 14 Lower House election, according to polls in Nikkei, Asahi, Kyodo and Yomiuri, all based on tens of thousands of phone calls.

Abe Poll Ratings Resume Plunge, Part 2

As we detailed in yesterday’s Alert, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s approval ratings have resume the steady slide that was temporarily interrupted by the Cabinet reshuffle in September. We suspect that his support remains “a mile wide and an inch deep.” If there were a solid alternative, either inside the LDP or from the opposition parties, we suspect his approval ratings would be even lower.

Shiga Governor Election Loss A Setback for Abe

LDP Loses Governor Election in Shiga Prefecture Due to Backlash Over Collective Self-Defense