FMI’s analyses of this morning’s April International Trade report and revised 18Q1 Productivity & Labor Costs results, as well as a review of Vehicle Sales and Production.
Data Round-Up: U.S. Exports Continue to Rise Nicely, Stronger Imports Showcase Healthy Domestic Economy
FMI’s analyses of this morning’s December International Trade results and December Job Openings & Labor Market Turnover report.
FMI’s analysis this morning’s October International Trade report and November Non-Manufacturing Index.
FMI’s analyses of today’s October Advance Indicators (Goods-trade, wholesale & retail inventories), September S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and November Conference Board Consumer Confidence reports (all three attached as a single PDF) plus notes on this morning’s Richmond & Dallas Fed Bank Regional Surveys.
Key points: - In January, real (price-adjusted) exports plunged by 9% from a year ago, the most severe downturn in three years; three-month average down 5% - Declining exports are a global problem for Japan, not a China problem - Nor does it seem a problem of a global slowdown in imports, but of a Japanese loss in market share - Credit Suisse sees GDP growing just 0.4% in calendar 2016 and falling 0.1% in 2017 (latter assumes tax hike is implemented on schedule in April 2017)
In this report, Richard argues that Japan's January exports may not be that much of a bright spot as the statistics indicated.