The national PMI, which fluctuated around a decent 51 this spring, is poised for a modest increase in June. At ~52, the PMI would be consistent with +21⁄2% real GDP growth for 16Q2.
AbstractRegional manufacturing surveys, most of which recorded a solid start in early spring but then reversed course in May, finished the quarter on an upbeat note. We expect the national PMI to post a slight increase (out on Friday). This would be consistent with our forecast for a bit more than +2.5% real GDP growth in 16Q2.