Rogelio  Ramirez de la O

Expertise: Mexican macroeconomic policy, fiscal and monetary policy constraints on growth International trade and investment

Dr. Rogelio Ramírez De la O is the president of Ecanal, a private economic advisory firm focused on the macro outlook, opportunities and risks. Ecanal’s clientele mainly consist of large international firms with operations in Mexico and some investment funds. Dr. Ramírez has published extensively on Mexico’s macroeconomic issues, international trade and Nafta for the Center of International Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C.; SAIS-John Hopkins, Canada’s Fraser Institute and CD Howe and the Pacific Council on International Affairs. He is regularly consulted for his opinion on Mexican macro policy for the international press and investors.

He is an Independent director of Consorcio Peña Verde and member of the (US) Conference of Business Economists.

He holds a PhD degree in Economics from Cambridge University and a bachelor’s degree in Economics, from the National Autonomous University of Mexico. 

Hits:

- Forecast unprecedented current account deficits in 1991
- Was one of few who, since 1992, expected a significant depreciation of the peso with or without NAFTA
- Predicted the passing of NAFTA
- Predicted the banking crisis of 1995 and a sharp recovery after peso devaluation
- Predicted the adoption of inflation targets in 1996
- Predicted the failure of the two PAN presidencies (2001 and 2007) to inaugurate a new period of growth
- Predicted a serious global meltdown and Mexican recession of 2009
- Predicted the fading away of the “Mexican Moment” in 2013

Misses:

- The government losing control to violence since 2008
- The resilience of the Mexican social fabric to the 2009 recession and after
- The poor growth record since 2013
- The continued increase in public spending in 2013-14

Mexican economic indicators continue to show low momentum in the short term. Our estimate of growth for 2015 remains around 2%, as weakness is now reinforced by the cut in public spending announced for this year, likely to hit investment, and subdued business expectations.
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Expert Information

Expertise

Mexican macroeconomic policy, fiscal and monetary policy constraints on growth International trade and investment

Location

Mexico City

Experience

Current Experience

President of Ecanal

Past Experience

Education

  • Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the National Autonomous University of Mexico
  • PhD degree in Economics from Cambridge University