Supplier Bottlenecks Reflect Strong Growth, Not Trade Panic

FMI’s commentary on supplier delivery bottlenecks and potential distortions from new tariffs.

The Trump 'Trade Wars' Timelines

FMI’s review of the timeline for the Trump “trade wars.”

China Is Bluffing on U.S. Tariffs, and Trump Knows It

FMI’s commentary on Trump’s trade clash with China and feud with Amazon, plus a note on the implications of San Francisco Fed president John Williams’ move to the NY Fed.

Data Round-Up: U.S. Exports & Imports Set New Records; Trade Likely cut -0.75% from 18Q1 GDP

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s February International Trade report.

China Update: Reflecting on the Trump-Xi Summit

An update on China after the Trump - Xi Summit

Trump's Dillemma on NAFTA, China - Part 2

Key points: - Trump’s dilemma is that withdrawal from NAFTA and high tariffs against China would cause enormous dislocation for American firms producing in the US; 40% of all US imports from Mexico consist of US content embodied in Mexican-assembled of Mexican-finished goods ​- US exports are highly dependent on imported inputs, e.g. a fifth of every dollar of manufactured exports consists of foreign inputs ​- US production of manufactured goods in general, and transport equipment in particular, are highly dependent on imported parts and supplies ​- The countries that send these goods to the US, whether it be Mexico or China or Canada,  are themselves part of intricate international supply chains in which their exports contain lots of foreign content, including US content ​- The global ripple effects from a trade war would be enormous

Trump Dilemma on NAFTA - Part 1

In his latest alert, Richard reports that Trump’s dilemma is that voters won’t like consequences of what they asked for: withdrawal from NAFTA and high tariffs against China would cause enormous dislocation for firms producing in the US; 40% of all US imports from Mexico consists of US content embodied in Mexican goods and the blue states that Trump turned red in this election, some by very thin margins, are very dependent on both exports to NAFTA and China, and imports from them.

China’s Economy and Policy: Trends and Outlook in Early 2016

China recorded the lowest GDP of 6.9% for 25 years in 2015; given historically high levels of debt and excess housing and factory capacity, growth going forward will stagnate. In 2015, China became a net outbound investor for the first time. The trend of rising outbound FDI will continue as China seeks higher than domestic returns and access to new markets, incl. for geopolitical reasons.

The U.S. Dollar and International Economic Conditions

FMI's comparative analysis of the key economic indicators between the U.S. and other lcountries/regions.

Possible Abe-Xi Meeting at Beijing APEC Summit

The New York Times reported today that, according to Japanese officials, the two countries are working on an agreement for at least a photo op, and perhaps a 15-minute non-substantive meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping during APEC.