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Data Round-Up: Soft Retail Sales & Higher Inflation a Double Whammy in January

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s January CPI, January Retail Sales, and December Business Inventories reports as well as an updated look at 17Q4 GDP Sources & Uses and likely revisions in the Second Report of 17Q4 GDP out later this month.

Correction, Even an Equity ‘Crash,’ Won’t Threaten Economy

FMI’s commentary on the current stock market correction.

No Budget Deal Likely This Week, But No ‘Shutdown’ Either

FMI’s commentary on the likely next steps in the federal budget impasse.

Data Round-Up: December Housing Starts Disappoint, Mainly Due to Weather

FMI’s review of this morning’s December Housing Starts and January Philadelphia Fed Regional Manufacturing Index reports, as well as the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.

Government ‘Shutdown’ Poses No Threat to Economy

FMI’s commentary on the economic impacts, or lack thereof, of a government shutdown.

For 2017, New FOMC Same as Old FOMC

FMI’s commentary on personnel and other changes on the FOMC in 2017

Trump's Dillemma on NAFTA, China - Part 2

Key points: - Trump’s dilemma is that withdrawal from NAFTA and high tariffs against China would cause enormous dislocation for American firms producing in the US; 40% of all US imports from Mexico consist of US content embodied in Mexican-assembled of Mexican-finished goods ​- US exports are highly dependent on imported inputs, e.g. a fifth of every dollar of manufactured exports consists of foreign inputs ​- US production of manufactured goods in general, and transport equipment in particular, are highly dependent on imported parts and supplies ​- The countries that send these goods to the US, whether it be Mexico or China or Canada,  are themselves part of intricate international supply chains in which their exports contain lots of foreign content, including US content ​- The global ripple effects from a trade war would be enormous

ADP Jobs Model Gets Bragging Rights, For Now

FMI’s commentary on the new, improved ADP Employment Survey

Data Round-Up: Labor Markets Solid in Face of Financial Market Turmoil

FMI’s review of the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.

TOE Alert: Financial Market Mayhem

Key points for Richard Katz's TOE Alert include: - Stock prices fell 5% on Tuesday and another 2.4% Wednesday morning to the lowest level since Kuroda’s “monetary bazooka” of October 2014; - The yen stands at ¥114.6/$, the strongest level since October 2014; - Yields on JGBs out to ten-year maturity are now in negative territory, for the first time; - Banks, pension funds, insurers all invest heavily in JGBs; - Banks have already made big cuts in the rates they pay depositors, but are not expected to go into negative territory for households or SMEs; ​- All this means a squeeze on earnings at banks, insurers and pension funds

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