FMI’s analyses of this morning’s January CPI, January Retail Sales, and December Business Inventories reports as well as an updated look at 17Q4 GDP Sources & Uses and likely revisions in the Second Report of 17Q4 GDP out later this month.
FMI’s commentary on the current stock market correction.
FMI’s commentary on the likely next steps in the federal budget impasse.
FMI’s review of this morning’s December Housing Starts and January Philadelphia Fed Regional Manufacturing Index reports, as well as the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.
Key points: - Trump’s dilemma is that withdrawal from NAFTA and high tariffs against China would cause enormous dislocation for American firms producing in the US; 40% of all US imports from Mexico consist of US content embodied in Mexican-assembled of Mexican-finished goods - US exports are highly dependent on imported inputs, e.g. a fifth of every dollar of manufactured exports consists of foreign inputs - US production of manufactured goods in general, and transport equipment in particular, are highly dependent on imported parts and supplies - The countries that send these goods to the US, whether it be Mexico or China or Canada, are themselves part of intricate international supply chains in which their exports contain lots of foreign content, including US content - The global ripple effects from a trade war would be enormous
FMI’s review of the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.
Key points for Richard Katz's TOE Alert include: - Stock prices fell 5% on Tuesday and another 2.4% Wednesday morning to the lowest level since Kuroda’s “monetary bazooka” of October 2014; - The yen stands at ¥114.6/$, the strongest level since October 2014; - Yields on JGBs out to ten-year maturity are now in negative territory, for the first time; - Banks, pension funds, insurers all invest heavily in JGBs; - Banks have already made big cuts in the rates they pay depositors, but are not expected to go into negative territory for households or SMEs; - All this means a squeeze on earnings at banks, insurers and pension funds