FMI’s review of December U.S. Dollar and Trade Prices results.
Key points of this report, - The current profits of Japanese corporations have fallen in the last three quarters. For all corporations, current profits are down 16% from April-June 2015 - Among manufacturers, who are the biggest multinationals, profits are down a whopping 29% from three quarters ago to a level first reached 13 years ago in 2003 - In part, profits are down because sales have slumped, but an even bigger reason for the plunge in profits is that the ratio of profits-to-sales is down 13.5% from its peak in April-June 2015 - The roller coaster ride of the yen’s value has played a pivotal role in the roller coaster ride of profits; over the last five years, there has been a stunningly high 95% correlation between the profits:sales ratio and the value of the yen - Most of the impact of the ups and downs of the yen on profits is a pure accounting illusion, but one that, for a while, misled many foreign investors
TOE Alert: Growing Number of Currency Traders See Yen Going to Y95-110 Per Dollar; Abe Aide Says Delay Consumption Tax
Key points: - Abe Advisor Honda calls for postponement of consumption tax hike - Investment bankers increasingly see yen moving to ¥95-110/$ during 2016 - Even MOF intervention seen as creating only temporary interruption in yen rise - Separating out the fundamental and technical factors
FMI’s end-of-the-month summaries for the U.S. Dollar and International Economic Conditions.
FMI’s commentary on the likely (very modest) effects of the dollar’s recent appreciation.
FMI’s analysis of recent US dollar movements and today’s September Import and Export Prices.