Macro

Data Round-Up: Fed Surveys Show Modest Uptick in Mfg; Claims Point to Good Feb. Jobs Report

written by Michael Lewis on February 18, 2016

FMI’s review of today’s February Philadelphia Fed regional manufacturing survey and the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.

Data Round-Up: Core CPI Running at Fast Pace in Nearly 4 Years

written by Michael Lewis on February 19, 2016

FMI’s analyses of today’s January CPI report and other high-frequency inflation indicators.

Data Round-Up: Manufacturing, Housing Starts OK; PPI Shows Some Upward Pressure

written by Michael Lewis on February 17, 2016

FMI’s analyses of today’s January Industrial Production, Housing Starts and PPI reports and notes on the February NY Fed regional surveys.

TOE Alert: Growing Number of Currency Traders See Yen Going to Y95-110 Per Dollar; Abe Aide Says Delay Consumption Tax

written by Richard Katz on February 12, 2016

Key points: - Abe Advisor Honda calls for postponement of consumption tax hike - Investment bankers increasingly see yen moving to ¥95-110/$ during 2016 - Even MOF intervention seen as creating only temporary interruption in yen rise - Separating out the fundamental and technical factors

TOE Alert: GDP Falls 1.4%; Still 0.4% Below Pre-recession Peak Almost Eight Years Ago

written by Richard Katz on February 15, 2016

Key points: - GDP fell at 1.4% pace in Oct-Dec. - This is the eighth quarter of the last 16 in which GDP has fallen - GDP still 0.4% below pre-recession peak almost eight years ago - At this point, Japan’s recovery from 2008-09 slump no better than in Eurozone - US, UK and Germany all doing substantially better than Japan - Biggest hit to growth is ongoing slump in consumer spending; spending even lower than it was almost four years ago in Jan-March 2012 - Artificial stimulus of spending on consumer durables has gone into big reverse - Second arrow missing in action as government spending flat for last two years

U.S. Is Not Heading Into or Toward Recession (Most Likely)

written by Michael Lewis on February 12, 2016

FMI’s Commentary on recession fears.

FMI Weekly Data Preview: February 15-19

written by Michael Lewis on February 15, 2016

FMI’s complete Preview of the notable data releases in this holiday-shortened week

TOE Alert: BOJ Negative Rates Backfire; People Move to Cash Instead of Stocks

written by Richard Katz on February 11, 2016

Key points in Richard Katz's report include: - Kuroda’s negative rate policy presumes low rates will force firms, banks and households to shift to higher-return risky assets - But Kuroda’s premises about firm and household behavior have been consistently mistaken - They are based on theories about what a perfectly rational person would do rather than looking at what real-world firms and households actually do - Ever since the BOJ pushed interest rates to the floor, beginning in 1995, households have shifted out of higher return time deposits at the banks into cash and ordinary deposits, which pay almost no interest - They have not increased their purchases of insurance annuities - Pension funds have gone up because people have no choice - Households have been consistent sellers of stocks in the past decade, selling even more when the market is rising a lot