Report
TOE Alert: GDP Falls 1.4%; Still 0.4% Below Pre-recession Peak Almost Eight Years Ago
posted by Richard Katz on February 15, 2016
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Headline
What is going on in Japan, or, more precisely, not going on? Market economies want to grow, unless they’re pushed down by something (think of a cork bouncing to the surface of your bathtub unless you keep pushing it down).
Abstract
Key points:
- GDP fell at 1.4% pace in Oct-Dec.
- This is the eighth quarter of the last 16 in which GDP has fallen
- GDP still 0.4% below pre-recession peak almost eight years ago
- At this point, Japan’s recovery from 2008-09 slump no better than in Eurozone
- US, UK and Germany all doing substantially better than Japan
- Biggest hit to growth is ongoing slump in consumer spending; spending even lower than it was almost four years ago in Jan-March 2012
- Artificial stimulus of spending on consumer durables has gone into big reverse
- Second arrow missing in action as government spending flat for last two years
About Richard Katz
Richard Katz is Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Council for Ethics In International Affairs, the New York correspondent for Weekly Toyo Keizai, a leading Japanese business magazine, and formerly the editor of The Oriental Economist Report, a monthly newsletter on Japan.
Mr. Katz has taught about Japan’s economy as an Adjunct Associate Professor at the New York University Stern School of Business, and as a Visiting Lecturer in Economics at the State University of New York (SUNY) at Stony Brook.
Mr. Katz is the author of two books on Japan's economic travails and has just finished a third book on reviving entrepreeurship in Japan.
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- The Oriental Economist Report - April 2017 on April 10, 2017
- The Oriental Economist Report - March 2017 on March 07, 2017
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