Growth Outlook and Business Cycle

Data Round-Up: Home Price Trend Continues to Impress

written by Michael Lewis on February 23, 2016

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, January Existing Home Sales and February Conference Board Consumer Confidence results as well as a review of today’s collection of February Fed Bank regional manufacturing and services surveys.

FMI Weekly Data Preview; Barron’s Cover Story

written by Michael Lewis on February 22, 2016

FMI’s complete Preview of the notable data releases this week

Data Round-Up: Fed Surveys Show Modest Uptick in Mfg; Claims Point to Good Feb. Jobs Report

written by Michael Lewis on February 18, 2016

FMI’s review of today’s February Philadelphia Fed regional manufacturing survey and the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.

Data Round-Up: Core CPI Running at Fast Pace in Nearly 4 Years

written by Michael Lewis on February 19, 2016

FMI’s analyses of today’s January CPI report and other high-frequency inflation indicators.

Data Round-Up: Manufacturing, Housing Starts OK; PPI Shows Some Upward Pressure

written by Michael Lewis on February 17, 2016

FMI’s analyses of today’s January Industrial Production, Housing Starts and PPI reports and notes on the February NY Fed regional surveys.

TOE Alert: GDP Falls 1.4%; Still 0.4% Below Pre-recession Peak Almost Eight Years Ago

written by Richard Katz on February 15, 2016

Key points: - GDP fell at 1.4% pace in Oct-Dec. - This is the eighth quarter of the last 16 in which GDP has fallen - GDP still 0.4% below pre-recession peak almost eight years ago - At this point, Japan’s recovery from 2008-09 slump no better than in Eurozone - US, UK and Germany all doing substantially better than Japan - Biggest hit to growth is ongoing slump in consumer spending; spending even lower than it was almost four years ago in Jan-March 2012 - Artificial stimulus of spending on consumer durables has gone into big reverse - Second arrow missing in action as government spending flat for last two years