Archive

Data Round-Up: Despite Solid Payroll Jobs Gain, FOMC Likely to Stand Pat in March

written by Michael Lewis on Friday, March 4, 2016

FMI’s analysis of this morning’s February Employment and January International Trade reports.

TOE Alert: Teflon Abe; the Curse of One-Party Democracy

written by Richard Katz on Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Key points: - As we expected, public disenchantment has grown as Abenomics failed to deliver on its promises; in a new Nikkei poll, 50% of respondents said they were dissatisfied - However, we were wrong in our expectation that disenchantment with Abenomics would propel a steady erosion of Abe’s overall approval ratings; over the last year, approval has stabilized at around 40-50%, a high level for a PM with Abe’s tenure - There is growing expectation that Abe will call—and win—a double-election this summer of both Upper and Lower House; Abe will not, however, secure a two-thirds majority in both Houses needed to revise the Constitution

Abe Considering Another Postponement of Tax Hike on Poor Consumer Spending

written by Richard Katz on Thursday, March 3, 2016

Key points: - Kantei considering another postponement of the consumption tax hike - This is partly due to upcoming election and partly due to ongoing bad news on consumer spending - Consumer spending in January was down a whopping 4% from a year ago - Spending is now even lower than it was in mid-2014 after the consumption tax was raised from 5% to 8% - Auto sales are down 20% from a year ago - Some economists see GDP falling again in January-March, after having fallen at a 1.4% annual rate in October-December