Macro

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Data Round-Up: No Evidence for Deflation, Plenty of Signs of Healthy Growth

FMI’s analyses of today’s October CPI report (including High-Frequency Inflation Indicators and October PPI), the November Philadelphia Fed Regional Manufacturing survey and the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.

Data Round-Up: Single-Family Housing Starts Climb in October; Multi-Unit Prospects Remain Solid

FMI’s review of today’s October Housing Starts results. Also last night, the Senate fell one vote short of 60 votes needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster of the Keystone oil pipeline project (all 45 Republicans voted yes, joined by 14 Democrats, including four lame ducks who lost in the November election).

October 2014 Industrial Production

Data Round-Up: Manufacturing Softens, But Trend Still Looks Reasonable

Preview of Data Releases: November 17 - 21, 2014

FMI’s Preview of this week’s major data releases for industrial production, consumer price index, housing starts, weekly initial unemployment claims and existing home sales.

Japan Back in Recession: Surprise GDP Drop

The big picture is that GDP in 2014, so far, remains worse than 1997. Not a single major forecaster predicted that GDP would drop in July-Sept. The consensus forecast was in the 2.2-2.5% range, depending on the survey.

TOE Alert: Abe Facing Down MOF-BOJ Over Tax Delay

From everything we hear, Abe is determined not only to call the early elections we discussed in our Nov. 11 Alert, but he is equally determined to postpone the next hike in the consumption tax from October 2015. Most likely he will postpone it until April 2017.

Data Round-Up: UI Claims Edge Up But Trend Undeniably Healthy

FMI’s review of the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.

Data Round-Up: Small Businesses Plan Some Pick-Up In Hiring, Wages

FMI’s analysis of today’s October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

Kuroda’s “Hail Mary” pass

In the face of a growing loss of faith in the Bank of Japan’s ability to either achieve its 2% inflation target in the foreseeable future or to help boost real growth—and even snarky passages in the press about BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda “stealthily extending the deadline for exiting deflation”—Kuroda threw a “Hail Mary” pass.

Data Round-Up: New Low for Unemployment, Hours Worked Point to Solid 14Q4 GDP

FMI’s analysis of this morning’s October Employment report.

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