Growth Outlook and Business Cycle

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Vehicle Sales Remain Healthy in July

Vehicle sales reached an estimated 16.4 mm units in July (seasonally-adjusted at annual rate). While down a bit from June’s cycle high of 16.8 mm, sales were in line with the strong 14Q2 average.

June Spending, Income Drops Again, Worse than 1997

Income and Spending Down Again in June in Japan

Real Exports in June Down 2% From Last Year

Plurality of Voters Disapprove of Abenomics; Exports down in June 2% from Last Year

Post-Tax Hike Consumer Spending Tracking 1997 Path

April-May Post-Tax Hike Spending Tracks Fairly Closely the Pattern in 1997

Preview of Data Releases: May 27 - 30, 2014

Also of note this week will be April Durable Goods Orders and Personal Income reports on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. Tuesday’s March Home Prices data should show continued solid year-over-year appreciation, though momentum is slowing gradually.

Preview of Data Releases: May 19 - 23, 2014

With the Fed on auto-pilot – monitoring data and tapering QE3 until this autumn – no revelations are likely

Multi-Family Tilt No Threat to Housing Sector or Economy

Apartment Construction Adds to Economy also

Nikkei Index Loses Third of Its Initial Gains Under Abe

Foreign Investors Losing Faith in Abenomics

Expecting Contraction in April-June; Test is July-September

1st Quarter GDP: Jump in Pre-Tax Hike Spending

Is Electricity Shortfall Deindustrializing Japan?

Exports Still Down; MFG. Capacity Shrinking

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