Growth Outlook and Business Cycle

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Data Round-Up: NFIB, JOLTs, Manpower Underscore Improving Labor Markets

FMI’s analyses of today’s August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, July JOLTS data and the 14Q4 Manpower Employment Index.

Labor Participation Likely to Edge Down Further Ahead

FMI’s commentary on the likely course of Labor Participation and our review of the latest Weekly Initial UI Claims data.

Data Round-Up: Real Consumption Likely Up +2% in 14Q3

FMI’s analyses of today’s August Retail Sales and July Business Inventories reports as well as reviews of August Bank Lending & Money Supply data and August Import and Export Prices.

FMI Weekly Data Preview: September 15-19

FMI’s Preview of the coming week’s major data reports.

Data Round-Up: Equipment Sector, Vehicles to Add Solidly to 14Q3 GDP

FMI’s analysis of this morning’s August Industrial Production report as well as notes on the September NY Fed Empire regional manufacturing survey.

Data Round-Up: CPI Moderated in August; FOMC Likely to Make Little Change to Guidance

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s August CPI as well as a review of this week’s August PPI results.

Data Round-Up: Claims, Regional Surveys Point to Further Economic Improvement

FMI’s reviews of today’s September Philadelphia Fed Regional Manufacturing survey, the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic data and August Housing Starts results.

2nd Quarter GDP, Consumption Worse than 1997

The fallbacks in consumption and GDP were both markedly worse this April-June than after the analogous tax hike in 1997.

Japan GDP Plunge Worse than 1997

The larger-than-expected plunge in April-June GDP and the disappointing initial economic indicators for July have shown that the underpinnings of Japan’s economic recovery are far weaker and more fragile than the Abe administration, and most economists, had presumed.

A Graphic Presentation of FMI Key Economic Trends

FMI’s end-of-the-month report for July Graphic summary of economic trends.