Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic


Data Round-Up: Existing Homes Sales Post Lowest Level of the Year; Prices Rising Briskly

FMI’s review of today’s July Existing Home Sales report and the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results. Also this morning, the Mortgage Bankers Association announced that the mortgage delinquency rate continued to improve in 17Q2; it fell to 4.24%, down -42BP from a year ago.

Data Round-Up: Exports Post Another Upside Surprise in August, Inventories Soften

FMI’s analyses of today’s August Advance Indicators report (Goods Trade, Wholesale & Retail book-value inventories), Third Report of 16Q2 GDP and the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.

Data Round-Up: UI Claims Steady, QSS Looks Dull

FMI’s review of the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.

Data Round-Up: Philly Index Reflects Brexit Fears, But Underlying Tone Healthy

The Philly index fell back into the red in July, but the survey detail was upbeat. UI claims and existing home sales also remain in good shape. The economy has clearly broken out of its winter doldrums and should remain healthy into 2017.

Data Round-Up: PPI et al Show Mounting Inflation Pressures

At the June FOMC meeting, policymakers decided that it would be “prudent” to delay action until after the Brexit vote. They also wanted to wait for a rebound after the weak May jobs report. Brexit passed, but U.S. equity markets quickly overcame their initial shock and have reached new highs. June payrolls came back in a big way. The remaining issue holding back the FOMC is that inflation remains “too low.” However, there was precious little in the latest data to justify such concerns. Core PPI and key high-frequency inflation indicators continue to turn up. While the FOMC seems certain to pause in July and the odds may still lean against action in September, the FOMC will feel increasing pressure to resume rate hikes in coming months.

June Employment Preview: Payrolls Job Gains Back to Trend, Plus a Little Extra

From all appearances, May’s pathetic +38K payroll jobs gain was an outlier. While jobs growth was bound to decelerate from the robust +200K/month pace of the prior year, no other data support such a marked drop-off. Initial UI claims fell -16K to 254K; the improvement may be overstated by Independence Day. The four-week-average was impressive at 265K. This was the 70th straight week that claims were under the bellwether 300K mark.