Japan Exports Show "Green Shoots"
Export rebound in March in Japan makes economists more optimistic about both medium-term real exports and Jan-March GDP.
Tokyo Says Don't Expect TPP Deal at Summit
Richard analyzes the remaining issue for Japan and the U.S. to reach a bilateral deal in time for the upcoming summit in Washington.
TOE Alert: Record low turnout and uncontested seats give LDP triumph in local elections
This report analyzes why Abe's victory in local elections does not reflect support for either Abenomics or any other of Abe’s policies, as claimed by the Abe team.
TOE Alert: Wyden-Hatch Cosponsor TPA without Any Increase in Congress' Ability to Withdraw all or Parts of It
In this report, Richard explains why Wyden-Hatch deal on TPA increases the likelihood that TPA can pass the House.
April Could be “Do or Die” For TPP, Part 2
In this second part of the report, Richard explains why there might not be a TPP deal reached at the summit between Abe and Obama in late April.
April Could be “Do or Die" for TPP, Part 1
April may be the “do or die” month for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement (FTA). Two hurdles come in April, and failure to clear either one could doom TPP to become another Doha Round, i.e., trade negotiations that turn into a gabfest that goes on forever but is never concluded.
GDP Risks Contraction in Jan.-March, Part 1
Richard analyzes the reason behind Japan's GDP may contract in Jan-March based on the February data.
Toyota the Exception On Wage Hikes, Part 2
In this part 2 of the report, Richard argues that rather than rush to judgment about the impact of this spring’s wage negotiations on nominal and real wage growth based on the headlines from a few big firms like Toyota, we should wait until we get the actual numbers on wages for April and a few months thereafter.
Toyota the Exception On Wage Hikes, Part 1
There is a lot of crowing in the Japanese press about wages rising in Japan because Toyota Motor Co. and some other big firms offered the biggest wage hikes in years, partly due to pressure from the Abe administration.
I Shot My Arrow in the Air
This is the March issue of Richard's the Oriental Economist Report covering a range of political and economic issues in Japan.