Richard Katz
Orrin Hatch and the TPP Rorschach Test
written by Richard Katz on September 30, 2016
Key points covered in this report are, - The Hill headline—Hatch: TPP deal will get done in lame-duck session—goes too far - What Hatch said was “I think we’re going to get it done in the lame duck” providing that the Administration meets his conditions, including 12 years of data exclusivity for biologics; informed observers tell us hatch has not changed his position - Hatch said other mechanisms beside “side letters” could be used, but he has said that before as well
TOE Alert: BOJ throws in the towel
written by Richard Katz on September 21, 2016
The keypoints of this report include, - The Bank of Japan has abandoned the pretense that it can achieve its 2% inflation target in two years, or any other particular timeframe - In the face of pressure from private banks, it refrained from going more deeply into negative rate territory regarding bank reserves at the BOJ - In another so-called “new framework” it has switched its main operating target: from an increase in the monetary base to keeping 10-year bond yields at zero - The BOJ also issued a Comprehensive Assessment of why it failed to meet its 2% target, but there is not a lot of culpa in its mea culpa; it keeps insisting that its policy will eventually work - There is no talk of what is really needed: a fiscal-monetary combination
TPP on the Ropes, Part 4
written by Richard Katz on September 12, 2016
Key points included in this report are, - Ryan tells GOP members of House Obama has run out of legal time to force TPP ratification vote this year - Froman hosts breakfast of TPP Ambassadors and says US will not reopen settled issues - US gave up little in market-opening in return for the concessions it demanded of others; ITC says TPP will boost America’s global exports by just 0.2% of GDP - US could have lifted imports five times as much if it further opened government procurement, but it could not do so because Congress would have rejected the pact - Imagine the resentment of others at both the way the US negotiated and now the notion that it will talk away from a pact it virtually wrote - American state losing ability to corral special interests to compromise for the broader national interest
TPP on the Ropes, Part 3
written by Richard Katz on September 12, 2016
Key points included in this part three of the report are, - Hatch says “progress” in talks with White House on 12 years for biologics, but he said something similar in the spring and it went nowhere - Hatch claims some TPP countries will to go to 12, but informed sources call this “unrealistic” - Not clear whether Obama Administration is even asking anyone for 12 years - Number two and three GOP leaders in Senate (Cornyn and Thune) seem unaware of any WH-Hatch talks, and say concessions on tobacco also needed; Thune says “odds are not good” - Hatch says, even with biologics solution, hard to get ratification - How could Froman ask other countries to make new concessions if he cannot reassure them it will lead to ratification?
TPP on the Ropes, Part 2
written by Richard Katz on September 06, 2016
Key points included in this report are, - We were cautioned by some pro-TPP players “never say never,” so let’s put odds of TPP ratification in lame duck at 10-15% - Many normally pro-trade members of Congress on both sides of the aisle are deserting the TPP, either opposing it outright or saying they are “studying” it
TPP on the Ropes, Part 1
written by Richard Katz on September 05, 2016
Key points including in this report are, - TPP will not be voted on in lame duck session of Congress in November-December - If Clinton is elected, she is unlikely to revisit TPP in any form during first year or two in office, if ever - Without US ratification, TPP will die; TPP rules require ratification by at least six of the eleven TPP countries, representing at least 85% of TPP-wide GDP; that 85% target cannot be reached without ratification by both the US and Japan - Other countries are unwilling to reopen negotiations with the US, even in the form of so‑called “side-letters,” because, even then, no President can assure them Congress will not come back with even more demands
TOE Alert -- Banks, FSA Push Back Against Negative Rates
written by Richard Katz on August 22, 2016
The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) failed negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is provoking increased opposition among the big banks and the Financial Services Agency (FSA), the ministry which protects them
The Oriental Economist - June 2016
written by Richard Katz on June 17, 2016
The Oriental Economist June 2016 Issue topics cover Nurturing entrepreneurs, UH election prospects, Foreign Firms in Japan, Economy Watch, Losing steam among voters, Mr. Obama goes to Hiroshima.
Accounting Illusion No Longer Works in Corporate's Favor Profits Slide on Yen Reversal
written by Richard Katz on June 02, 2016
Key points of this report, - The current profits of Japanese corporations have fallen in the last three quarters. For all corporations, current profits are down 16% from April-June 2015 - Among manufacturers, who are the biggest multinationals, profits are down a whopping 29% from three quarters ago to a level first reached 13 years ago in 2003 - In part, profits are down because sales have slumped, but an even bigger reason for the plunge in profits is that the ratio of profits-to-sales is down 13.5% from its peak in April-June 2015 - The roller coaster ride of the yen’s value has played a pivotal role in the roller coaster ride of profits; over the last five years, there has been a stunningly high 95% correlation between the profits:sales ratio and the value of the yen - Most of the impact of the ups and downs of the yen on profits is a pure accounting illusion, but one that, for a while, misled many foreign investors
The Oriental Economist - May 2016 Issue
written by Richard Katz on May 07, 2016
Richard Katz's May 2016 issue of the Oriental Economist Report
