recession
Trump's Dilemma - Balancing Promises to Suppoerters with Need to Avoid Recession
written by Richard Katz on November 22, 2016
Key points: - If Trump fulfills plans to deport 11 million illegal aliens, launch trade war with China and Mexico, and perhaps withdraw from NAFTA, it could spark serious recession - But failure to take action could lead supporter to regard him as another phony - Stock market and most economists are betting Trump will not fulfill these plans - His big tax cuts are seen as bullish: stimulus to economy from tax cuts will more than offset drag caused by rise in interest rates and the dollar - Economists still a bit higher growth under Trump than Clinton in 2018 (2.3% vs. 2.0%) - Dollar index vis-à-vis all trading partners has spiked to 15-year high, including weakening of yen back to ¥110/$ - Reason is widening gap between US and Japanese interest rates
Real GDP Stalled (Again) in 16Q1, But Rebound Underway
written by Michael Lewis on April 14, 2016
FMI’s Commentary on 16Q1 GDP and the (solid) prospects for a rebound.
FMI March 2016 Economic and Investment Outlook
written by Michael Lewis on February 26, 2016
FMI's complete March 2016 Economic & Investment Outlook.
U.S. Is Not Heading Into or Toward Recession (Most Likely)
written by Michael Lewis on February 12, 2016
FMI’s Commentary on recession fears.
