Kuroda
TOE Alert -- Banks, FSA Push Back Against Negative Rates
written by Richard Katz on August 22, 2016
The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) failed negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is provoking increased opposition among the big banks and the Financial Services Agency (FSA), the ministry which protects them
The Oriental Economist - May 2016 Issue
written by Richard Katz on May 07, 2016
Richard Katz's May 2016 issue of the Oriental Economist Report
TOE Alert: BOJ Negative Rates Backfire; People Move to Cash Instead of Stocks
written by Richard Katz on February 11, 2016
Key points in Richard Katz's report include: - Kuroda’s negative rate policy presumes low rates will force firms, banks and households to shift to higher-return risky assets - But Kuroda’s premises about firm and household behavior have been consistently mistaken - They are based on theories about what a perfectly rational person would do rather than looking at what real-world firms and households actually do - Ever since the BOJ pushed interest rates to the floor, beginning in 1995, households have shifted out of higher return time deposits at the banks into cash and ordinary deposits, which pay almost no interest - They have not increased their purchases of insurance annuities - Pension funds have gone up because people have no choice - Households have been consistent sellers of stocks in the past decade, selling even more when the market is rising a lot
TOE Alert: Financial Market Mayhem
written by Richard Katz on February 09, 2016
Key points for Richard Katz's TOE Alert include: - Stock prices fell 5% on Tuesday and another 2.4% Wednesday morning to the lowest level since Kuroda’s “monetary bazooka” of October 2014; - The yen stands at ¥114.6/$, the strongest level since October 2014; - Yields on JGBs out to ten-year maturity are now in negative territory, for the first time; - Banks, pension funds, insurers all invest heavily in JGBs; - Banks have already made big cuts in the rates they pay depositors, but are not expected to go into negative territory for households or SMEs; - All this means a squeeze on earnings at banks, insurers and pension funds
TOE Alert: BOJ Sends up Grey Flag in Revising Downward Its Inflation Forecast
written by Richard Katz on January 25, 2015
Richard reports that the Bank of Japan Governor has raised the grey flag for achieving the 2% inflation target in two years.
Kuroda’s “Hail Mary” pass
written by Richard Katz on November 07, 2014
In the face of a growing loss of faith in the Bank of Japan’s ability to either achieve its 2% inflation target in the foreseeable future or to help boost real growth—and even snarky passages in the press about BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda “stealthily extending the deadline for exiting deflation”—Kuroda threw a “Hail Mary” pass.
BOJ Doubles down to Save Credibility, Part 2
written by Richard Katz on November 05, 2014
Kuroda’s actions may have been triggered by a draft report by the BOJ staff reportedly projecting a large downward revision in expected inflation in fiscal 2015; in the end the BOJ made a small downward revision.
BOJ Doubles down to Save Credibility, Part 1
written by Richard Katz on November 04, 2014
In the face of growing loss of faith in the Bank of Japan’s ability to either achieve its 2% inflation target in the foreseeable future or to help boost real growth, Kuroda doubled down his strategy of lots of confident talk and even more money-creation.
