GDP

TOE Alert: GDP Falls 1.4%; Still 0.4% Below Pre-recession Peak Almost Eight Years Ago

written by Richard Katz on February 15, 2016

Key points: - GDP fell at 1.4% pace in Oct-Dec. - This is the eighth quarter of the last 16 in which GDP has fallen - GDP still 0.4% below pre-recession peak almost eight years ago - At this point, Japan’s recovery from 2008-09 slump no better than in Eurozone - US, UK and Germany all doing substantially better than Japan - Biggest hit to growth is ongoing slump in consumer spending; spending even lower than it was almost four years ago in Jan-March 2012 - Artificial stimulus of spending on consumer durables has gone into big reverse - Second arrow missing in action as government spending flat for last two years

2016: A New Year, A New-ish Economy

written by Michael Lewis on December 31, 2015

FMI's complete January 2016 Economic & Investment Outlook.

Data Round-Up: Inventory Correction Has Ways to Go; Income Revised Up Markedly

written by Michael Lewis on November 24, 2015

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s Second Report of 15Q3 GDP and October Advance Trade-Goods data, as well as notes on the November Philadelphia Fed regional non-manufacturing survey, Richmond Fed regional manufacturing & services surveys and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

Data Round-Up: Improved GDP Mix in 15Q2 Will Boost 15Q3 Some

written by Michael Lewis on September 25, 2015

FMI’s analysis of this morning’s Third Report of 15Q2 GDP.

Data Round-Up: Improved GDP Mix in 15Q2 Will Boost 15Q3 Some

written by Michael Lewis on September 25, 2015

FMI’s analysis of this morning’s Third Report of 15Q2 GDP.

Data Round-Up: 15Q2 Real GDP Growth Looks to Be Revised Up to +3%

written by Michael Lewis on August 04, 2015

FMI’s review of 15Q2 GDP Sources & Assumptions, including likely revisions to date.

The NMI stunned to the upside in July with the headline index and key components (new orders, employment) surging to 10-year highs.

written by Michael Lewis on August 04, 2015

FMI's complete August 2015 Economic & Investment Outlook.

CAPEX Shows life in Revised GDP Numbers

written by Richard Katz on June 12, 2015

Japan's Jan-March GDP was revised upwards from a 2.4% annual rate of growth to 3.9%, the biggest reason for the change was that, for the first time since the April 2014 tax hike, business investment grew substantially, at a 10% annual rate.