Key points: - GDP fell at 1.4% pace in Oct-Dec. - This is the eighth quarter of the last 16 in which GDP has fallen - GDP still 0.4% below pre-recession peak almost eight years ago - At this point, Japan’s recovery from 2008-09 slump no better than in Eurozone - US, UK and Germany all doing substantially better than Japan - Biggest hit to growth is ongoing slump in consumer spending; spending even lower than it was almost four years ago in Jan-March 2012 - Artificial stimulus of spending on consumer durables has gone into big reverse - Second arrow missing in action as government spending flat for last two years
FMI’s analyses of this morning’s Second Report of 15Q3 GDP and October Advance Trade-Goods data, as well as notes on the November Philadelphia Fed regional non-manufacturing survey, Richmond Fed regional manufacturing & services surveys and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
FMI’s review of 15Q2 GDP Sources & Assumptions, including likely revisions to date.
The NMI stunned to the upside in July with the headline index and key components (new orders, employment) surging to 10-year highs.
FMI's complete August 2015 Economic & Investment Outlook.
FMI’s analyses of this morning’s Second Report of 15Q1 GDP and May Chicago PM and Other Regional Business Surveys.