GDP Disappoints Again in 4th Quarter, Part 2

While GDP overall disappointed, there are some bright spots which suggest that 2015 should look better than the zero growth seen in 2104.

Abe’S Man Loses Saga Governor Vote To JA (Japan Agriculture)

Richard analyzes the Saga Prefecture election setback to Abe and its possible implications for TPP.

A Victory, not a Mandate

Hope in Abe and Abenomics disappearing.

LDP Does Not Owe Victory to Rural Districts

This report analyzes that Abe has the electoral ability to override the farm lobby on TPP—and its allies within the LDP if he wants to, since the LDP was not dependent on the rural vote for its victory.

LDP: A Victory, Not Mandate

In this report, Richard explains why Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a victory, but not a mandate.

Tax Delay the Right Move

Richard analyzes why Abe's delay on consumption tax hike is the right move to the Japanese economy.

Consumption, income, inflation Drop in October

In October, core inflation—excluding the effect of the consumption tax hike—fell to a rate of 0.9%, price-adjusted income and consumption both fell to levels sharply below year-earlier levels, although there were up from September.

TOE Alert: Election Likely to Buttress Abe - for a while

Abe likely to gain clout from elections--temporarily.

Japan Back in Recession: Surprise GDP Drop

The big picture is that GDP in 2014, so far, remains worse than 1997. Not a single major forecaster predicted that GDP would drop in July-Sept. The consensus forecast was in the 2.2-2.5% range, depending on the survey.

TOE Alert: Abe Facing Down MOF-BOJ Over Tax Delay

From everything we hear, Abe is determined not only to call the early elections we discussed in our Nov. 11 Alert, but he is equally determined to postpone the next hike in the consumption tax from October 2015. Most likely he will postpone it until April 2017.