Even at Full Employment, Expansion Has a Good Ways to Go
FMI’s commentary on the implications of the convergence of the falling unemployment rate and rising inflation rate.
Data Round-Up: Inventory, Consumption Led Upside 18Q3 GDP Surprise
FMI’s analysis of this morning’s Advance Report of 18Q3 GDP.
Data Round-Up: Existing Home Sales Decline for Sixth Straight Month
FMI’s review of this morning’s September Existing Home Sales report.
Data Round-Up: Housing Starts Underwhelm, Again, in September
FMI’s review of this morning’s September Housing Starts report.
Data Round-Up: Regional Mfg Surveys Continue Solid Gains in October
FMI’s review of this morning’s October Philadelphia Fed regional manufacturing survey and the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.
Hurricane Michael Should Have Little Impact on October Payrolls
FMI’s commentary on the macroeconomic impacts, or lack thereof, from Hurricane Michael.
Data Round-Up: Real Consumption Likely Rose +3.5% in 18Q3
FMI’s analyses of this morning’s September Retail Sales and August Business Inventories reports, plus notes on this morning’s the October NY Fed Empire regional manufacturing index.
Data Round-Up: Core & Total PPI Trends Continue to Exceed Inflation Target
FMI’s review of today’s September PPI report, including a round-up of recent high-frequency inflation indicators.
Tariff Drag on U.S. Should Be Much Less Than Expected
FMI’s commentary on the economic impacts from President Trump’s tariffs and retaliatory measures by trading partners.