FMI expects June to revert to trend, albeit a somewhat more moderate trend around +165K. With the Verizon bump, that makes +200K jobs (+195K private). The jobless rate should retain most of May’s improvement.
AbstractFrom all appearances, May’s pathetic +38K payroll jobs gain was an outlier. While jobs growth was bound to decelerate from the robust +200K/month pace of the prior year, no other data support such a marked drop-off. Initial UI claims fell -16K to 254K; the improvement may be overstated by Independence Day. The four-week-average was impressive at 265K. This was the 70th straight week that claims were under the bellwether 300K mark.