June Employment Preview: Payrolls Job Gains Back to Trend, Plus a Little Extra

posted by Michael Lewis on July 07, 2016

Found in US, categorized in Macro

Tags: FMI michael lewis Preview of the June Employment Report Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic

Report Cover


FMI expects June to revert to trend, albeit a somewhat more moderate trend around +165K. With the Verizon bump, that makes +200K jobs (+195K private). The jobless rate should retain most of May’s improvement.


From all appearances, May’s pathetic +38K payroll jobs gain was an outlier. While jobs growth was bound to decelerate from the robust +200K/month pace of the prior year, no other data support such a marked drop-off. Initial UI claims fell -16K to 254K; the improvement may be overstated by Independence Day. The four-week-average was impressive at 265K. This was the 70th straight week that claims were under the bellwether 300K mark.

About Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis

Mike Lewis founded Free Market Inc. (FMI) in 1982 as a full-service economic consulting firm, providing insights and in-depth data analysis primarily for institutional money managers and corporate planning directors.

FMI has compiled a solid record of timely, independent and accurate economic forecasts.  FMI blends its unique analysis of indicators and experience with economic cycles into a consistent overall outlook. They offer both a comprehensive overview and in-depth detail that enable clients to integrate FMI’s insights into their decision-making process.

FMI's reports are driven by data releases in the U.S. And here are the major releases that they cover,

Request a speaking engagement