Data Round-Up: PPI et al Show Mounting Inflation Pressures

posted by Michael Lewis on July 14, 2016

Found in US, categorized in Macro

Tags: michael lewis FMI June PPI Bank of England Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic June U.S. Dollar and Trade Prices High-Frequency Inflation Indicators

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All observers agree that the FOMC will pause again at their July meeting. The remaining issue holding back the FOMC is that inflation remains “too low.”


At the June FOMC meeting, policymakers decided that it would be “prudent” to delay action until after the Brexit vote. They also wanted to wait for a rebound after the weak May jobs report. Brexit passed, but U.S. equity markets quickly overcame their initial shock and have reached new highs. June payrolls came back in a big way. The remaining issue holding back the FOMC is that inflation remains “too low.” However, there was precious little in the latest data to justify such concerns. Core PPI and key high-frequency inflation indicators continue to turn up. While the FOMC seems certain to pause in July and the odds may still lean against action in September, the FOMC will feel increasing pressure to resume rate hikes in coming months.

About Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis

Mike Lewis founded Free Market Inc. (FMI) in 1982 as a full-service economic consulting firm, providing insights and in-depth data analysis primarily for institutional money managers and corporate planning directors.

FMI has compiled a solid record of timely, independent and accurate economic forecasts.  FMI blends its unique analysis of indicators and experience with economic cycles into a consistent overall outlook. They offer both a comprehensive overview and in-depth detail that enable clients to integrate FMI’s insights into their decision-making process.

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