LDP: A Victory, Not Mandate

In this report, Richard explains why Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a victory, but not a mandate.

Tax Delay the Right Move

Richard analyzes why Abe's delay on consumption tax hike is the right move to the Japanese economy.

TOE Alert: LDP Predicted tO Win 300 or More Seats

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is currently on a trajectory to win 300 or more seats in the Dec. 14 Lower House election, according to polls in Nikkei, Asahi, Kyodo and Yomiuri, all based on tens of thousands of phone calls.

TOE Alert: Real Wages Drop 16th Month in a Row

For the 16th month in a row, real wages for workers were below year-earlier levels.

Consumption, income, inflation Drop in October

In October, core inflation—excluding the effect of the consumption tax hike—fell to a rate of 0.9%, price-adjusted income and consumption both fell to levels sharply below year-earlier levels, although there were up from September.

TOE Alert: Election Likely to Buttress Abe - for a while

Abe likely to gain clout from elections--temporarily.

Japan Back in Recession: Surprise GDP Drop

The big picture is that GDP in 2014, so far, remains worse than 1997. Not a single major forecaster predicted that GDP would drop in July-Sept. The consensus forecast was in the 2.2-2.5% range, depending on the survey.

TOE Alert: Abe Facing Down MOF-BOJ Over Tax Delay

From everything we hear, Abe is determined not only to call the early elections we discussed in our Nov. 11 Alert, but he is equally determined to postpone the next hike in the consumption tax from October 2015. Most likely he will postpone it until April 2017.

TOE Alert: Abe Almost Certain to Call Snap Election, Delay Second Tax Hike

Abe almost certain to call snap election for Lower House and delay hike in the consumption tax.

TOE Alert: Abe approval down again, so are real wages, TPP delayed, BOJ infighting, etc.

Abe’s approval ratings fell again; in the NHK poll, approval was down to 44% while disapproval was up to 38%.