Japan
TOE Alert: Japan's Nikkei 225 stocks move in line with S&P, DAX and FTSE
written by Richard Katz on January 14, 2016
We’re no experts on stock markets, but it does occur to us that the gyrations of Japan’s stock prices over the past six months may say less about the fundamentals of Japan’s economy than about the ups and downs of sentiment on all four of the major bourses in rich countries: the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, FTSE (London) and DAX (Frankfurt).
TOE Alert: Machinery Orders up a Lot, But Beware of Monthly Gyrations
written by Richard Katz on December 09, 2015
Japan-watchers got very excited because core private machinery orders in October were up 10% on a month-on-month basis, However, the monthly movements in orders have very large gyrations, even though the most volatile elements are removed from core orders. Bottom line: core orders could be a genuine “green shoot,” or one month’s surprising number may be misleading us.
Getting to 2% Real Growth Productivity Revolution
written by Richard Katz on December 04, 2015
Richard Katz's December issue of the Oriental Economist includes reports of Getting to 2% Real Growth Productivity Revolution, How Much Productivity Growth is Needed? Talk with MOF’s Top Official, Japan's Software Industry - What Went Wrong? Taking the Lead on Climate Change - New Energy Model for PRC, Development Aids Climate Goals, and Cheap Yen, Lots of Buying - Tourism Explodes.
TOE Alert: Is Japan's Potential Growth Really As Low as 0.5%, Part 4
written by Richard Katz on December 01, 2015
One way to boost labor productivity, and thus potential growth, is to give each worker more tools, and this Japan has done. Over the long haul, however, it is ever more important to give workers “smarter” tools, e.g. moving from animal-pulled plows to tractors, from the stand-alone PC to the Internet. And it is important for companies to use those smarter tools up to their full potential. On this front, as we will detail today, Japan falls short.
TOE Alert: Is BOJ right that Japan's potential growth is as low as 0.5%? Part 1
written by Richard Katz on November 18, 2015
We pointed out in our Nov. 16 Alert that Japan’s GDP has grown at a mere 0.6% annual pace in the nearly four years since early 2012,but our gut feeling is that the BOJ’s figure is too pessimistic, and the purpose of today’s Alert is to explore that question.
TOE Alert: Is Japan's Potential Growth Really Just 0.5%, Part 2
written by Richard Katz on December 24, 2015
In our Alert of Nov. 18, we began looking at whether Japan’s potential growth is really as low as the 0.5% rate asserted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ)? Our gut feeling is that the BOJ is too pessimistic and that potential growth is more likely around 0.8%-0.9%, more or less the same as for the last quarter-century.
TOE Alert: Is Japan's potential growth really just 0.5%?
written by Richard Katz on November 30, 2015
Japan’s productivity growth faces two challenges from the labor side: a demographic crunch in which each worker must finance the livelihood of more retirees and an erosion of the skills of the labor due to the rise of non-regular workers to 37% of the labor force.
TPP: More ON GOP & Hillary; Japanese Growth
written by Richard Katz on October 08, 2015
Despite the claimed economic gains for Japan from TPP (more on that in another Alert), many in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) fear it could be a political loss: particularly in the 32 mostly rural single-seat districts that have tipped the balance in the last three Upper House elections.
TOE Alert: How Does Japan Stack up on Growth Compared to G7, Part 2
written by Richard Katz on October 05, 2015
Richard's second installment on how Japan's economic growth has been compared with other G7 countries.
TOE Alert: How does Japan's Growth Stack up in International Comparisons, Part 1
written by Richard Katz on September 29, 2015
Some economists claim that except for aging, Japan does not really have a problem with growth in GDP or productivity. And in this report Richard argues why that statement is incorrect.
