With nine weeks to go, the economic conditions for the election are set — modest growth, low inflation, and continuing job gains. A few Wall Street forecasters rate the odds of a 2016 recession at one-in-three; but unless a major shock wrenches the economy off its present course, bet with Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke on the economic expansion continuing into next year.
Here is my comment on Martin Sandbu's Free Lunch: Where did all the productivity go? And what would it take to make it grow again?
My FinTech conversations this week have focused on the newer end of the ecosystem. An upcoming profile will feature a firm that provides bitcoin ATMs targeted at the unbanked so they can send money at lower fees than traditional transfers.
Another conversation with a financial planner concerned how he is working as a coach and trusted advisor, making more on his advice than on transactions. Given the rise of roboadvisors in the wealth management sector, it's a good move.
Donald Trump says that Democrats have failed American minorities, so let’s test his claim by the most basic economic criteria: What happened to the incomes of African Americans and Hispanics under Democratic and Republican administrations over the last 35 years? The data do not lie. The incomes of minority households — and in most cases the incomes of white households, too — grow faster under Democratic administrations than under GOP ones.
We’ll be resuming with our September issue after Labor Day. Hope you’ve been having a good summer.
This is an advanced copy of an interview with Michael Green that will be in the issue. Michael Green, a former member of the George W. Bush National Security Council, explains why he is opposing Donald Trump and endorsing Hillary Clinton.
All eyes are on Jackson Hole and the annual Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium. BOJ Governor Kuroda’s appearance on a panel on Saturday could be just as interesting as Fed Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday morning. Global central bankers who have made long flights and several connections in order to get to Jackson Hole are bound to be discussing the US election outlook with as much fervor as monetary theory. Some will wonder if Janet Yellen will attend next year.
Bring out the Xanax. Anxiety among Obamacare supporters is skyrocketing. The bad news just keeps coming. Aetna has joined UnitedHealthcare and Humana in announcing plans to exit almost all public marketplaces. Remaining health insurers are increasing rates by double-digit margins: most over 20%; some over 40%.