Pulse: Politics


False Spring? | EconVue Spotlight

Spring has been a bit tardy this year in the US, and I hear many other places, but not in Asia.  The title of a recent Brookings meeting at Northwestern University was “Japan, the United States, and the Future of Asia”  but the topic was Korea.  I posed the question of whether or not we are experiencing a false spring. Talks between the two Koreas, the US and China are certainly a hopeful development, but do they mask fundamental and growing divisions between the major powers in the Pacific? Together, these countries comprise half of global GDP.

China welcomes all of you, foreign friends!

In January, 2018, the Chinese government issued new regulations to facilitate the issuing of R visas for overseas talent. In the future, foreign experts including top scientists, international entrepreneurs and other talents whose skills are in urgent demand will be allowed to stay in China for up to 180 days at a time, with multiple entries on a visa valid from 5 to 10 years. Their spouse and children can also apply similar visas.

Defense and Security Challenges in the Dominican Republic

I am sharing my article on security challenges in the Dominican Republic, just published (in Spanish) in Guarnicion, the journal of the armed forces of the Dominican Republic and the English-language adaptation of the article was published by the eJournal IndraStra. The full text of the English adaption of the article is listed below.

Chinese Engagement in Latin America and the US Response: "Taking Off the Gloves"

I am sharing my new editorial, just published by the news service UNIVISION.  The work examines the PRC's expanding, increasingly self-confident engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean, as manifested in the recent China-CELAC summit in Santiago Chile.  The work notes China's growing pursuit of political and security engagement with the hemisphere, as well as its surprising willingness to acknowledge its intention to move the region away from its relationships with the US and other "great powers."  

Round-Up: 17Q4 Real GDP Growth Likely to Stay at +2.6% in Second Report; Budget Deal Approved


With the government open for business as usual this morning, book-valuewholesale inventories were reported up +0.4% in December. Including revisions, these data were in-line with BEA’s estimates in the Advance Report of 17Q4 GDP. FMI is still tracking no net change to 17Q4’s +2.6% real GDP growth in the Second Report on February 28.  
 

Moreno Reviving Ecuador's Participatory Democracy

I am sharing my new article on the policies and challenges of Ecuador's recently elected president Lenin Moreno, with recommendations for US policymakers.  The article emphasizes the positive steps that President Moreno has taken in reviving an inclusive, democratic discourse in his country, as well as opportunities for the US to respectfully work with him and his government, despite persistent policy differences. The article is originally published through Newsmax.

What to Watch for in 2018

Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year.

1: Central banks
The era of ultra-cheap money, which began during the global financial crisis, is drawing to a close. Already, the US Federal Reserve has raised its key policy interest rate target four times since the end of 2015, and has begun to wind back its bloated balance sheet (something which will take a very long time to complete).

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