Pulse: Macro


The Check Is In the Mail

In the great whirl of FinTech news, with daily reports on the potential of artificial intellitence, machine learning, bots, and blockchain, the power of present practices can be forgotten.

Most small and midsize businesses pay with paper checks: 62% according to a recent Javelin Strategy and Research survey. Because it's easier.

Donald Trump and Paul Ryan’s Plan to Put Foreign Investors First

The “Border Adjustment Tax” (BAT) endorsed recently by President Trump is his administration’s first foray into international economics. It is an inauspicious start.

EconVue Spotlight

The OECD Global Economic Outlook: Modest Recovery, but Risks Remain

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)[1] recently released its semi-annual economic outlook[2].  Three major themes emerge from the report. First, the global economy is gradually emerging from a five-year (2012-1016) low-growth trap, and global growth should pick up modestly in 2017and 2018 (Table 1).  Second, we are seeing a shift in economic policy from over-reliance on monetary policy to fiscal initiatives designed to boost growth. Third, we are not out of the woods and significant risks remain.

Regulatory Trumps

Indian and Chinese Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Comparative Assessment

I am sharing my new monograph, "Indian and Chinese Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Comparative Assessment."

My Take on Abe-Trump Summit in Foreign Affairs

Foreign Affairs ran my take on the Abe-Trump summit at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2017-02-16/trump-and-japan?cid=soc-fb-rdr .

Excerpts:

China's Currency Manipulation? Trump is Two Years Late

One of the oft-repeated themes of Candidate (then President) Trump is that the world has been taking advantage of us at every turn, and that China is the main culprit.  The evidence presented is that China has been systematically manipulating its currency to boost its exports and discourage imports, thus contributing to the massive U.S trade deficit.  However, the evidence is a dollar short and a couple of years late.  If anything, China has been struggling in the past 18 months to prevent its currency from depreciating too rapidly.

Bots!

Chatbots in banking, the banks that do APIs well, and the rise of open banking. This week's FinTech links provide a look at the shifts in technology that can move banks away from consumers and provide consumers a way to gain greater control over their banking experience.

And then there's the genuine coin of the realm, in the form of paper money. National Public Radio reports that 80 percent of U.S. currency circulates in hundred dollar bills—"Franklins"—but nobody really knows where they are.

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