Pulse: Macro


The Payments Elephant

THE WEEK IN FINTECH 12/08/17

The Payments Elephant

I moderated a meeting of the Chicago Payments Forum this week to discuss payments developments in 2017 and how they will affect business in 2018 and beyond. In putting together the overview, it occurred to me that right up front we had to address the elephant in the room: bitcoin.

At Money2020 at the end of October, I heard a number of people talk about it as a new "asset class," a statement I saw quoted almost daily as bitcoin's price rose steadily.

Outlook for the Australian Economy against a Global Economic Backdrop

Here is my PowerPoint presentation to the ACTE-CAPA (Association of Corporate Travel Executives – Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation) Conference, which was held in Sydney on 29th November 2017.

EconVue Spotlight

EconVue Spotlight | A Big Week in Washington

There were three big stories out of Washington this week. President Trump’s trip to Asia has nearly overshadowed news of Congress’s proposed tax changes, and for the first time since G. William Miller, the Federal Reserve will be led by a non-economist.

10-Year Retrospective: Lessons 7, 8, 9 | Three more Lessons! That's the Lot

7. Neglect of international causes

This is the most fatal flaw, as it is the one least understood  by economists, governments or bankers.

My interpretation of the crisis emphasises its international dimensions – not only in the rapid spread of the crisis but also in its root causes (see Lesson 3).

Yet this perspective is still denied, derided or ignored.

10-Year Retrospective: Lesson 6 | The State has Rewarded Bad Behavior and Bad Banks

How has the state punished the financial industry for its crimes,  corruption and anti-social behaviour?

By showering it with subsidies, privileges,  perks and by offering it protection from an angry public. And by reducing its profitability and capacity to change by piling new regulatory layers and requirements.

And this remains true not just of the UK and US. It is true of European countries as well.

There is no incentive to improve their behaviour.

10-Year Retrospective: Lesson 5 | Banks have not Regained Public Trust

This is another unavoidable lesson. Banking has not been reformed by actions taken by the state, central banks or regulators since the crisis. Indeed they have set back the prospects for improvement.

There were two main strands in the policy response to the crisis. One was monetary policy – the experiment in QE, discussed in Lessons 1-3. The other was regulatory.

Banking industry leaders have resisted all efforts to reform. That shows that in the current state of society, banking can be regulated – raising costs to society – but not restructured.

Changing Corporate Governance

This is an interview conducted by Hitoshi Chiba from the Public Relations Office of the Government of Japan.

EconVue Spotlight | US Irrational Exuberance vs China's Minsky Moment

The big story this past week has been the pomp and circumstance of China’s 19th Party Congress and its centerpiece, President Xi Jinping’s lengthy speech. In spite of many columns of analysis, there have been no public surprises. You’ll find my favorite article below, “Why Do We Keep Writing About Chinese Politics As If We Know More Than We Do?”

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